Before the season started, I posted 20 bold predictions for the 2009 season. I simply listed these predictions with no further explanation. Now that two months have past and we are about 1/3 of the way through the season, I thought it would be fun to take a look back at what I said and see how I am looking so far. Original predictions are in bold, followed by my comments and a scoring decision.

1) Javier Vazquez wins the NL Cy Young award- Vazquez ranks second in the NL in FIP, strikeouts, K/9, and K/BB and he leads the majors in xFIP, yet his 3.54 ERA only ranks 16th among NL starting pitchers. Vazquez's skill set has never matched his ERA and this year is no exception once again, thanks to a .336 BABIP. It seems pretty obvious that after all these years of underperformance, it is no longer bad luck but something lacking in Vazquez's ability. Our good friend Derek Carty, another big Vazquez fan, has written two articles on THT attempting to figure out the underlying problems. Make sure to check them out here and here. That said, just a bit better luck and some bad luck for Johan and Lincecum, along with continued poor run and bullpen support for Dan Haren, could make this prediction come true. Then again, that is asking for quite a lot. Wrong

2) Travis Snider and Cameron Maybin hit below .240 and get demoted by the end of May- BINGO! Okay, so I just missed on Snider's average as he actually hit .242, but he played his last game on May 20 before being demoted. Maybin hit just .202 and was demoted on May 10 for a clear win here. Right (you're not really going to dock me for missing Snider's average by .02, are you?!)

3) Justin Upton hits 30 home runs- He is on pace for 31 home runs, which would give me the win here. An injured shoulder could change that, however. Right

4) David Purcey posts a sub-4.00 ERA- Oops. Bust #1 of my pre-season sleeper starting pitchers. He posted a 7.01 ERA, due to extreme fly ball tendencies and awful control. Unfortunately, he looked more like the clone of Oliver Perez than the breakout pitcher I thought he would be. Wrong

5) Nelson Cruz goes 35/15- 17 home runs already for a pace of 49! He has even chipped in 9 steals for a 26 steal pace. I guess I aimed too low. Maybe I should have predicted a 50/30 season. Right

6) Chad Qualls leads the NL in saves- Currently ranks ninth in the NL with 12 saves for a 34 save pace. He is only five behind leader Francisco Rodriguez, so it is still possible that this prediction could turn out correct. Lingering forearm tightness could put a serious dent in his chances, though. Wrong

7) Adrian Beltre out earns Kevin Youkilis- Wow, I certainly picked one of the biggest busts to out earn Youk. Beltre only has 4 home runs and is hitting just .246, but he has been okay in the other 3 categories. Offseason surgery is probably the culprit here. Youkilis has missed time due to various injuries, but when he has played, has so far proven that last year's power outburst was no fluke. I will likely be very wrong here! Wrong

8) Brett Cecil wins the AL Rookie of the Year award- One bad outing and he gets demoted. Pretty ridiculous if you ask me. His stats over those 24.2 innings were still very solid, with a 3.0 K/BB ratio and a 53% ground ball rate. Given the very weak crop of rookies this year, he could have very well been the front runner if he was given an extended look with the Jays. Wrong

9) Adam Dunn fails to make it a 5th straight year of hitting exactly 40 home runs- This was obviously a joke, but I expected Dunn to fall short of the 40 home run plateau due to park factors. He is on pace for 51 right now, so I would have been looking bad. Right, for wrong reasons...won't count this  

10) Clay Buchholz out earns Daisuke Matsuzaka- Dice-K has only pitched 27 innings so far, but with a 7.33 ERA and 2.11 WHIP, you could make the case that a minor leaguer giving you zeroes across the board has been more valuable! Buchholz should be up at some point this season and I remain a huge fan. Right?

11) Conor Jackson hits 25 home runs- Sorry to those who took action on my enthusiasm for C-Jax. Out with pneumonia for who knows how long after hitting just 1 home run in 99 at-bats, fantasy owners would be happy to get just 5 home runs at this point! You have to assume the illness affected his strength, and I do still believe a power spike is in his future. Wrong

12) Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill finish with sub-4.00 ERAs- Anderson has shown the solid control he flashed in the minors, but his strikeout rate is well below what I expected. He has made up for that by inducing grounders at a 51% rate, but that is still slightly below his minor league marks. His ERA sits at 4.97, making it possible he gets that below 4.00, but quite unlikely. Cahill has actually pitched much worse than Anderson, but better luck has kept his ERA at a respectable 4.21. I would be very surprised if Cahill finished with an ERA better than Anderson's. Wrong

13) The Twins boast a trio of 40+ stolen base thieves in Carlos Gomez, Alexi Casilla and Denard Span- Gomez has lost the most playing time as the Twins try to fit 5 players into 4 starting spots, despite Delmon Young doing absolutely nothing positive for the team (according to the Wins Above Replacement statistic on FanGraphs, Young has already cost his team 1.4 wins!). At least Gomez could play defense while not hitting at all. As a result, Gomez is on pace for just 11 steals in 329 at-bats. Casilla was demoted to the minors after stealing just 2 bases because he couldn't hit. Span has easily performed the best of this trio and has stolen 12 bases for a 33 steal pace. After last year's surprising breakout, Span looks to be for real. Wrong

14) Aaron Heilman out earns Carlos Zambrano- Zambrano's strikeout rate has rebounded, while his control remains poor and his fly ball rate is at the highest of his career. If this continues, his ERA will likely end above 4.00. It still won't matter for this prediction though, since Heilman is proving that last year's disaster was no fluke. Heilman has completely lost any semblance of control, with a 6.1 BB/9, and his K/BB ratio stands at a measly 1.2. What happened to the solid middle reliever we saw from 2005-2007? Wrong

15) Andy LaRoche hits .280 with 25 home runs- With a .302 average, I've hit on the first part so far, but where's the power? Only 2 home runs and a .115 isolated slugging percentage are not what we expected given his strong rates in the minor leagues. He is hitting a ton of line drives, but that is actually causing him to hit fly balls at just a 28% rate, which is way too low to hit even 20 home runs. Although seemingly having a nice rebound year, he remains an enigma. 1/2 Right

16) Ricky Nolasco suffers a significant arm injury and throws fewer than 100 innings- Not exactly, but his results have been terrible and a 25% line drive rate against suggests maybe it isn't just all bad luck. However, his peripherals are all still pretty good and his velocity is fine, so it is difficult to to conclude anything more than just plain old bad luck being at play here. But, he isn't your typical bad luck/buy low guy given the caution heeded in the pre-season. In the interest of full disclosure, I do own him now in my main league, having picked him up after he was dropped due to his demotion. 1/2 Right?

17) Rickie Weeks goes 20/30- Health is a skill. I've read that many a time and Weeks is certainly making sure we remember that. He was easily on pace to exceed the 20 home run barrier, but I guess all those home runs caused him to lose interest in stealing bases as he had just 2 before his season ended. Rickie Weeks, 2010 super duper sleeper galore!!! Wrong

18) Manny Parra finishes in the Top 10 of the Cy Young voting- Ughhhh. Call me crazy, but I still see some light at the end of the tunnel. He is still striking out batters at an above average clip, and is inducing ground balls at a solid 48% rate. Terrible defensive support and a poor strand rate have hurt him. Of course, his biggest problem is the step back in his control. I still keep seeing the good walk rates he posted in the minors and the step forward he took in last season's second half and remain hopeful. For some reason, I have held on to him in my main league, which is a shallow 11 team mixer, and have actually started him every single week. Hey, if nothing else, it gives me something to "Tee Off" on during the Roundtable radio show every Tuesday night! Wrong

19) The Atlanta Braves win the World Series- The McClouth acquisition was big. Next step is to do something about Jeff Francouer, who has found new ways to suck each and every year. According to Wins Above Replacement, Frenchy has already cost the team 1/2 a win. Awesome. The team is 5 1/2 games behind the Phillies so this prediction will remain possible all year as the Braves still have a reasonable chance at winning the division. Too early?

20) The City of Los Angeles Angels of the Greater Anaheim Region in the State of California will fail to make the playoffs- In a surprise twist, the Angels are 4 games behind...the Rangers. That division looks to be anyone's game, and I doubt the team finishing 2nd will end up as the Wild Card winner. I have to take credit for this prediction so far though as the idea was that the Angels would experience a sharp decline from last year's 100 wins, and so far they have. 1/2 Right?

It was tough to rate some of these predictions so early in the season, so some of you might quibble with several of my scoring decisions. The final tally one-third of the way into the season is:

5 1/2 Right
12 1/2 Wrong

If nothing else, that percentage is better than Matt Berry's in his annual pre-season prediction-fest!

TrackBack URI for this entry

Comments (0)

Subscribe to this comment's feed

Name

Website

Title

Comment

smaller | bigger

Subscribe via email (registered users only)

I have read and agree to the Terms of Usage.

Add Comment Preview