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20 Bold Predictions For 2009 PDF Print E-mail
Fantasy Baseball Blog
Written by Mike Podhorzer   
Tuesday, 31 March 2009 00:00
How many times have you seen a bold predictions column during the pre-season only to never hear a word about it again? Well here at FP911, we want to be accountable for what we say and look back at how we did at season's end. Here are 20 bold predictions for the 2009 season, some of which are bolder than others, that I believe have a much higher probability of occurring than the consensus. I will not even include any commentary, but simply list the predictions and let you guys debate them away in the comments.


1) Javier Vazquez wins the NL Cy Young award

2) Travis Snider and Cameron Maybin hit below .240 and get demoted by the end of May

3) Justin Upton hits 30 home runs

4) David Purcey posts a sub-4.00 ERA

5) Nelson Cruz goes 35/15

6) Chad Qualls leads the NL in saves

7) Adrian Beltre out earns Kevin Youkilis

8) Brett Cecil wins the AL Rookie of the Year award

9) Adam Dunn fails to make it a 5th straight year of hitting exactly 40 home runs

10) Clay Buchholz out earns Daisuke Matsuzaka

11) Conor Jackson hits 25 home runs

12) Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill finish with sub-4.00 ERAs

13) The Twins boast a trio of 40+ stolen base thieves in Carlos Gomez, Alexi Casilla and Denard Span

14) Aaron Heilman out earns Carlos Zambrano 

15) Andy LaRoche hits .280 with 25 home runs

16) Ricky Nolasco suffers a significant arm injury and throws fewer than 100 innings

17) Rickie Weeks goes 20/30

18) Manny Parra finishes in the Top 10 of the Cy Young voting

19) The Atlanta Braves win the World Series

20) The City of Los Angeles Angels of the Greater Anaheim Region in the State of California will fail to make the playoffs
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How many times have you seen a bold predictions column during the pre-season only to never hear a word about it again? Well here at FP911, we want to be accountable for what we say and look back at how we did at season's end. Here are 20 bold predictions for the 2009 season, some of which are bolder than others, that I believe have a much higher probability of occurring than the consensus. I will not even include any commentary, but simply list the predictions and let you guys debate them away in the comments.
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written by Derek Carty, April 05, 2009
Sorry I'm late to this party, but is it wrong to say that 75% of these aren't really crazy at all? Good stuff, Mike, you hit on a lot of guys I like as well.
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written by GabrielLundeen, March 31, 2009
I see you've finally seen the light on Denard Span, Mike. To put my money where my mouth is, I drafted both Gomez and Span yesterday in my keeper league, so I hope you're right about 40+ steals from each.
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written by Chase Williams, March 31, 2009
14) It wouldn't surprise me, not because I have confidence in Heilman, it just speaks more of my distrust in Zambrano---his arm has to be close to falling off after the workload he's taken the last 5 or so years.
15 & 16) I'm buying
17) Very bold considering he's never done either (the 20 HR or 30 SB's)... With that said, it wouldn't surprise me. The question will be can he hit .240 or higher? He's only done it once in 4 MLB seasons.
1smilies/cool.gif See Response to #8
19 & 20) I'd buy if the teams were reversed...

Sorry for the triple posting, didn't realize it wouldn't allow such a long response in one post.
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written by Chase Williams, March 31, 2009
9) I think he goes for 40 again... I don't care if its 1 in a 1000, he's done it 4 straight seasons, is still in his prime and is playing in a "pitchers" park where Soriano once hit 40+.
10) Only in US Dollars and Matsuzaka demands to get paid in Yen.
11) in MLB the Show 09 on your PS3... He may beat his career high (going back to his college days its 17 in a season), but expecting 20 or more is ambitious to say the least.
12) in Triple-A? Or in fewer than 15 starts?
13) They have the speed for it, but a log jam of playing time will prevent any of the 3 from stealing 40.
Hmm....
written by Chase Williams, March 31, 2009
I like the audacity of some of these bold predictions and I don't think you are too far off on some of them. Here's my un-solicited thoughts:

1) I'm a believer that he will have a huge season now that he is back in the NL, not sure if he'll win a Cy Young but its possible.
2) I believe the batting average... but I also think both will be given a longer leash to turn it around. I think both toil around in the majors for most of the season.
3) And also hits .240.
4) Only if they limit him to day starts... this guy was atrocious at night, maybe they should invest in a night vision goggles.
5) I'm buying
6) Not far off... still think Lidge is the safer bet.
7) Only in leagues that don't count RBI's... Who's going to get on base for him to knock in (other than Ichiro)?
smilies/cool.gif I think his walks will prevent him from having a great ERA and how people view him.
9) I think he goes for 40 again... I don't care if its 1 in a 1000, he's done it 4 straight seasons, is still in his prime and is playing in a "pitchers" park where Soriano once hit 40+.
10) Only in US Dollars and Matsuzaka demands to get paid in Yen.
11) in MLB the Show 09 on your PS3... He may beat his career high (going back to his college days its 17 in a season), but expecting 20 or more is ambitious to say the least.
12) in Triple-A? Or in fewer than 15 starts?
13) They have the speed for it, but a log jam of playing time will prevent any of the 3 from stealing 40.
14) It wouldn't surprise me, not because I have confidence in Heilman, it just speaks more of my distrust in Zambrano---his arm has to be close to falling off after the workload he's taken the last 5 or so years.
15 & 16) I'm buying
17) Very bold considering he's never done either (the 20 HR or 30 SB's)... With that said, it wouldn't surprise me. The question will be can he hit .240 or higher? He's only done it once in 4 MLB seasons.
1smilies/cool.gif See Response to #8
19 & 20) If you reversed the teams associated with each comment I would be buying..
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written by Kevin Orris, March 31, 2009
I agree with: 1, 3, 7, 13, 14, 15, 18,

Disagree with: 2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 16, 17, 20.

I like both Snider and Maybin a lot, and of course I'm a Braves fan so I have to agree with those ones.

21) The Kansas City Royals will win the AL Central.
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written by MikePodhorzer, March 31, 2009
I would be SHOCKED if 10 came true. Seriously, I'd be happy with even 5 because these predictions moreso represent overriding ideas and trends, rather than true forecasts I expect to be correct.
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written by MikePodhorzer, March 31, 2009
Ohhh, and the Dunn "prediction" was meant to be a joke. Of course the odds of ANOTHER 40 HR season are slim.

Haha Brian, blame that on Patrick! I just added back the 20th prediction about Nolasco.
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written by MikePodhorzer, March 31, 2009
I should have predicted the Braves would go 162-0!

Eric, I do see Heilman moving into the rotation at some point. Every team goes through many more than five starters during the year and given the fact that Harden is already pitching injured, Marshall is unproven and Zambrano had shoulder issues last year and a fast-declining K/9, the move could be sooner rather than later.
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written by BrianJoura, March 31, 2009
Some good picks in here but the boldest move was only putting 19 things in an article entitled 20.

On a serious note, at the end of the year what ratio of correct forecasts would you consider good? Obviously you won't get all of these right, but would you be happy if, say, 10 of them came true?
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written by MichaelMuschiano, March 31, 2009
Yeah, the Braves winning the World Series was a total shocker...
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written by Eric Stashin, March 31, 2009
Given your affinity fr David Purcey, I don't see this as very crazy coming from you Mike.

The same could be said for Vazquez and the Braves winning the World Series, though those are completely crazy!

I think the craziest may be Heilman over Zambrano. At this point Heilman isn't even in the rotation, so how badly do you think Zambrano is going to crash and burn to be outperformed by a middle-reliever? (Or, do you see Heilman getting a rotation spot early on?)
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written by patrick dicaprio, March 31, 2009
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written by Ackshawn, March 31, 2009
Finally some predictions with chutzpah! Where do I begin?

These are just slightly bold, and potentially true: Vasquez, Upton, Cruz, Weeks

These are crazy, quite bold, and unlikely: Cecil, Beltre, DMat, Braves, Angels

These are not very bold and totally true: CJ, LaRoche, and Dunn (c'mon, what are the odds Dunn hits 40 AGAIN? 1 in 1000?)

These are half true: Snider/Maybin. (You nailed their imminent struggles, but both should stay up.) 40 SB for the Twins OFS? Gomez only, 25 each for Casilla and Span

Predictions I am totally ambivalent about: Parra, Cahill/Anderson's ERA, and Qualls

Fun article.

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