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MLB Players To Watch
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Written by Eric Gehman
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Monday, 15 March 2010 06:31 |
Here are the latest developments from Spring Training.
The news keeps getting worse and worse for Jose Reyes and his traveling media circus this week. After seeing a specialist and having blood testing done, it has been confirmed that Reyes is out 'indefinitely' (as per the club's latest update) with a thyroid problem. Apparently the treatment for Reyes' condition involves changing his diet and resting, and he won't be able to resume baseball activities until he's reached some sort of normal hormonal balance in his blood levels.
Regardless, a stint on the DL to start the season seems like the sound of inevitability for Mr. Reyes, and a timetable of 'indefinitely' is probably the worst news the Mets or Reyes' fantasy owners could hope for. A May return seems likely for the prolific and mercurial SS, but after last year's constant delays in injury recovery, it's hard to stomach taking Reyes in the top 100 of any draft at this point. Perhaps Reyes' teammate Johan Santana summed it up best: he called the loss of Reyes for the first month of the season "Not a kick in the stomach," but instead a kick to "the coconut." Ouch.
Aging slugger Lance Berkman will miss 2-4 weeks (and possibly the 'Stros opener on April 5th) with soreness in his knee that will require surgery to remove 'debris' that resulted from a bad bruise. Being no medical expert myself (and not having recently stayed at a Holiday Inn Express) I won't claim to know much about the scope procedure Berkman will have in the next few days; that being said, it's hard not to be concerned about an aging first basemen who dealt with several minor injuries throughout the course of last year. As he is 34 years old, don't expect him to make it back sooner than the later end of his timetable as the Astros will want to be very careful to protect his health and make sure he's fully recovered before they put him out in the field again.
Prior to the announcement, he looked like a good draft day bargain as the 13th 1B being taken off the board in ESPN leagues (with an ADP near the 87th pick) and now it's hard to say how much confidence to place in him. He can rebound from a minor procedure nicely and that if his draft stock continues to fall more he may remain a bargain; otherwise, he's likely to provide about even value if you take him at that spot. My advice? Don't reach for him, but don't pass him up if he's the best hitter left on the board or you haven't drafted a 1B by that point in the draft. Berkman likely still has some gas left in the tank and won't hurt you anywhere like 1B taken after him: Carlos Pena is going roughly six picks behind the Big Puma as of this writing, and then there's a steep dropoff to less consistent, higher players like Michael Cuddyer and Chris Davis in the 130s and 140s.
As a random aside, while we're on the topic of first base: everyone is high on Kansas City Royal Billy Butler. He has already shown the ability to hit for average at the big league level and even though the power doesn't seem to be there yet, he's demonstrated a healthy upward trend in his HR/FB% over the past two seasons so there's no reason to believe 25 HR (or 30 if you're really optimistic) isn't possible. No, he's not on a very good team or in a great lineup, nor is he protected by any other prolific hitters like a Pujols, Fielder, or Howard type, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a player going into only his second full year in the majors with as much demonstrated talent or upside at 1B. If he's around in the late 70s or early 80s (i.e. near his ESPN ADP) and you still need a first baseman, just take him. Plus, there are plenty of indicators that he could improve upon his strong season last year, unlike other younger players at the position like Kendry Morales (whose numbers seem inflated by an artificially high BABIP and a ridiculous second half) or strikeout king Chris Davis.
Major leaguers got their first taste of rookie phenom Stephen Strasburg the other day, and the force was strong with the consensus number one pitching prospect. With wicked upper-90s heat and a rather nasty breaking ball (or two, depending on who you talk to), Strasburg appears to have the stuff to be every bit as good as we've heard and he is undoubtedly a fun player to watch so far (video highlights of his two innings of work are available in the media section of MLB.com, in case you missed his debut). His strikeout of Miguel Cabrera was particularly nasty, and it will be great to see just how many great major league hitters he can mess with through the next few weeks as he continues to face off against other pros during Spring Training.
All accolades aside, though, we didn't see much of Strasburg's breaking ball (which he threw only twice) and there's little reason for the still-developing Nationals squad to start him in the majors and start his arbitration clock right away. Financial considerations and a lack of talent in the Nats' big-league squad will ultimately push Strasburg down to AAA to start the year, so don't let a strong Spring performance or vague intimations by Mike Rizzo and John Riggleman convince you to draft him earlier than you need to. Enjoy the preseason hype and expect a June call-up from the minors for the heralded righty.
The same goes for the Cincinnati Reds' Cuban import Aroldis Chapman, who flashed his brilliant, triple-digit fastball in his first few innings of work. Chapman is equally unlikely to break camp in the majors as Strasburg (and for the exact same reasons), but with so little to get excited about in the Reds' camp, it's hard not to get caught up in the hype. Given that we know less about Chapman as a player than Strasburg, it remains to be seen just how durable he is on a club managed by arm-destroyer Dusty Baker, who tellingly expressed his excitement to the Washington Post about how Chapman seemed ready for a heavy workload given the fact that pitch counts hardly exist in the Cuban league Chapman played in last year(!)
In case you haven't been paying attention to the Continuing Story of Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez, Dusty Baker has an apparent hatred for young arms and a complete disregard for the medical evidence that a sudden spike in workload can prove disastrous for rookie pitchers. I'm less enthused about Chapman, even if his raw stuff is as impressive as Strasburg's. Also, how is it that we have a Cuban player signed to an inflated contract on a team called the "Reds" and no one has made any Communist jokes? Am I right? *Crickets*
Of course, the story is entirely different for the Atlanta Braves as they watch Jason Heyward continue to tear apart major league pitching and show off his impressive five-tool skill set. The more Heyward mashes, the more Frank Wren and Bobby Cox have said indicating a jump to the majors for the game's number one offensive prospect. I have no idea how to approach Jason Heyward going into drafts; in one league, I got him for $3 in a typical 12-team auction, and in a 10-team keeper league snake draft I saw him go right after the top 100. How do you even begin to put a value on a player with so much upside but so much to prove? If you're prepared to reach on him, make sure you fill your bench with a reliable OF or two who may be going later than necessary because of health concerns (Conor Jackson, anyone?) or diminished expectations despite past success (like a certain Brewers OF with a penchant for wearing sunglasses at night...).
With rookie fever out of the way, we should probably turn to the tragic case of top closer Joe Nathan, who tore his ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) and looks to be down and out for the year. Nathan has indicated that he will try to pitch through the injury, but given that most everyone who sustains this injury requires the dreaded Tommy John surgery to replace the ligament and the typical timetable for return from that procedure is almost 18 months, it looks nearly inevitable the 35 year old will have to go under the knife and may never be an MLB closer again in his career (if he has the drive and heals well enough to return at the midpoint of his age 36 season).
This is a huge blow for the Twins, but they still look competitive given their fairly deep bullpen. Jon Rauch will probably get first crack at closer duties now, followed by Matt Guerrier. And while manager Ron Gardenhire denied the possibility of Pat Neshek (who is 15 months out from his own TJ procedure last year) taking over as closer for the time being, Neshek simply has too much talent not to get a chance to take over later in the year if the first two guys struggle at all after the midpoint of the year. Keep your eyes peeled and bump Rauch up to back-tier closer status on your draft lists.
Finally, watch out for St. Louis Cardinals Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols. Both were recent scratches this week: the former sustained a ribcage injury, and the latter is dealing with a sore back. Right now, they seem to be okay and will likely not miss more than a few days, but these are two top-caliber offensive players and even the slightest amount of time missed can affect their stock value. It's hard not to be concerned with Pujols's slightly spotty injury history (remember the elbow scare a few years back?), but Holliday has been healthy for most his career. Continue to draft with confidence until you hear otherwise, but continue to check up on them and see what the buzz is in case either injury gets serious.
All news and references come from Rotoworld and MLB.com, and ADP info can be found at ESPN.com's Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit. Stats are from Fangraphs.com |
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MLB Players To Watch
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Written by Emory Upchurch
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Wednesday, 10 March 2010 21:43 |
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Every week we will take a look at some minor leaguers and how they are doing in Spring Training, with a view toward determining whether their ADP make them a sleeper or a value. This week we will examine a trio of young Outfielders who may have the opportunity to make an impact in 2010 for their Major League clubs and, more importantly, for your fantasy teams. All three are excellent players who will, at some point, pay huge dividends for whoever is lucky (or wise) enough to own them. Anyone in a league that has keepers or minor league rosters should roster these players during your draft if they are available. |
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MLB Players To Watch
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Written by Jay Walker
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Thursday, 11 March 2010 03:00 |
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Yesterday we covered some of the key American League position battles, so, naturally, today it’s on to the National League. |
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MLB Players To Watch
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Written by Greg Marta
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Monday, 08 March 2010 00:00 |
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Billy Wagner may be one of the greatest closers in baseball history and if you've been playing fantasy baseball for more than ten years he's probably been on your team at least once. This season he'll turn 39 and after TJ surgery on his left elbow in 2008 it's hard to tell what his 2010 season will look like. Wagner came back to pitch 15 innings in the majors last season and although his stuff was there he did walk an uncharacteristic 8 batters. |
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MLB Players To Watch
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Written by Eric Gehman
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Friday, 05 March 2010 12:41 |
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Here are the latest developments and analysis from the Spring. |
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MLB Players To Watch
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Written by Emory Upchurch
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Wednesday, 03 March 2010 07:21 |
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Every week we will take a look at some minor leaguers and how they are doing in Spring Training, with a view toward determining whether their ADP make them a sleeper or a value. Today we look at three of the biggest names. |
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MLB Players To Watch
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Written by Greg Marta
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Tuesday, 02 March 2010 07:37 |
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WIll Aaron Harang make a comeback? It is apparently Aaron Harang day here since we have two articles discussing him today.
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MLB Players To Watch
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Written by Greg Marta
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Monday, 22 February 2010 20:07 |
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Our series on comeback players for 2010 continues with Cole Hamels.
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MLB Players To Watch
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Written by Greg Marta
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Tuesday, 23 February 2010 00:00 |
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Super prospect Stephen Drew had his break out in 2008 but fell back to earth last season. Drew totaled only 12 homers and paired it with a pedestrian .260 batting average. His .324 on base percentage has the potential to jeopardize his spot atop the Diamondbacks order, which would cripple his run production. With a career .270 batting average across four major league seasons, it remains to be seen if he can maintain his 2008 level of performance.
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MLB Players To Watch
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Written by Greg Marta
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Thursday, 18 February 2010 19:39 |
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Our series on comeback players for 2010 continues with Alex Rios. |
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