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Observation Deck
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Written by Ray Calder HockeyObserver.com
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Wednesday, 17 March 2010 15:10 |
Welcome to this week's installment of the Observation Deck. I see upwards of ten games a week via Center Ice or in person and this notebook will contain some scouting impressions combined with some numbers when necessary. Lets get to week 22: |
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Observation Deck
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Written by Ray Calder HockeyObserver.com
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Wednesday, 10 March 2010 22:38 |
Welcome to this week's installment of the Observation Deck. I see upwards of ten games a week via Center Ice or in person and this notebook will contain some scouting impressions combined with some numbers when necessary. Lets get to week 21:
Vladimir Sobotka figures to have a much more significant place on the Bruins depth chart after the concussion suffered by Marc Savard. Sobotka is a guy I've always liked and he's shown much more offensive ability at the American League level than in his early NHL career (he scored 30 goals in his first 62 AHL games). He's more skilled than his pro numbers would indicate to this point and I thought he was very active Tuesday in the game against Toronto. He's currently centering the third line between Milan Lucic, and Miro Satan so he's a guy to watch based on opportunity alone.
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Observation Deck
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Written by Ray Calder HockeyObserver.com
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Thursday, 04 February 2010 00:46 |
Welcome to this week's installment of the Observation Deck. I see upwards of ten games a week via Center Ice or in person and this notebook will contain some scouting impressions combined with some numbers when necessary. Lets get to week 18:
One of my favorite young players the Panthers David Booth has just returned after missing three full months with a concussion suffered at the hands of the Flyers Mike Richards. Booth was dropped in a lot of leagues and if he's available in yours he should be claimed immediately. He managed to score a goal, and register an assist in his first 3 contests back, and just as importantly was firing at will, picking up 12 shots in those three games. To my eye he looks fine and should give your roto team a lift.
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Observation Deck
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Written by Ray Calder
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Wednesday, 27 January 2010 20:57 |
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Welcome to this week's installment of the Observation Deck. I see upwards of 10 games a week via Center Ice or in person and this notebook will contain some scouting impressions combined with some numbers when necessary. Lets get to week 17:
The Leafs Jonas Gustavsson will see a heavier workload down the stretch. You're not going to be able to rely on Gustavsson for wins in fantasy but it's obvious that he's the goalie with the best
tools and should be the one they turn to in the coming seasons.All you can hope for in leagues this year is that he continues to get comfortable over the rest of the season. The Leafs are a team that will look very different by this time next season.
Also in the nets Nashville coach Barry Trotz has admitted that he wants to lean more heavily on one of his guys rather than alternating starts the rest of the way. Expect Pekka Rinne to be the choice to play most of the Predators games. The team is solidly in the playoffs at this moment and Rinne has been more consistent than backup Dan Ellis.He should continue to help you in the wins column over the season's last 30 games.
Finally in Atlanta everybody is keen on seeing what the return will be when star Ilya Kovalchuk is dealt at the trade deadline. If I'm a Thrashers fan and resigned to the fact that Kovalchuk is on his way out of town, I'd definitely be hoping that the franchise requires their trading partner to send a goalie back as part of any return. The club has no problem putting the puck in the net (they're 7th offensively entering Jan. 27 games) but have never had a reliable goaltender that would make them a threat to make the playoffs and have some success once they get there. None of Kari Lehtonen (chronically injured), Ondrej Pavelec, or Johan Hedberg can be trusted to get the next strong Atlanta club over that hump.
In Phoenix Petr Prucha just had a run where he had points in 4 of 5 games. His numbers are not flashy but he's one of the few Coyotes who's a proven goalscorer. He combines great speed and very good hands - attributes that should see him continue to get plenty of icetime as the team battles for a playoff spot.
I did get a couple of emails asking for a fantasy perspective on Flyers C Darroll Powe. His best tool is his skating and he possesses very good speed and quickness. He's also such a competitive player that he can slide onto any of the Flyers lines as needed and not look out of place. If you play in a league with liberal adds and drops he's someone you should be looking at when injury strikes, or when you want to replace a player that's not getting it done.
Washington is shuffling defensemen Kyle Alzner and John Carlson back and forth from their AHL affiliate in Hershey. Both guys are going to be very strong fantasy contributors. Carlson is a guy that I think has a chance to be a huge star. He's just 20, but has every attribute that you could want in a young defenseman with excellent puck skills, size, and solid positional play in his own end. He has enough top end talent to score 60-70 points one day at the NHL level. He's a must target for those in Keeper/Dynasty leagues.
Florida lost a key contributor when Nathan Horton broke his tibia this past week. The player who will be leaned on the most to pick up some of the offensive slack is Corey Stillman. Stillman turned 36 years of age in December but still has enough skill to produce at a 50 point level over a full season. As long as he stays healthy he's going to see more minutes, power play opportunities, and would be a solid fantasy pickup if you lost Horton or need a forward as a short term replacement. He's found himself playing alongside Stephen Weiss and Michael Frolik on the Panthers top line.
Several weeks ago I told you Robbie Schremp was looking like he was going to be a key contributor on Long Island. In his last 10 contests (entering Jan.27) he's potted at least one point in 6 of those games. From a scouting perspective he doesn't look like the same player that had trouble making the Islanders starting lineup. He's much harder to play against as he sets up around the net, seems more willing to bang bodies to get in position to get his shot, and is showing a willingness to take abuse in the high traffic areas to make a play.If you stuck with him to this point he should be in your lineups now to reap some of the benefits of that loyalty.
Ottawa's Peter Regin is available in just about any league and has been playing his best hockey of late. He's more playmaker than scorer, boasts excellent hands, and has upgraded his strength (the biggest concern among scouting circles with this player). He turns 24 in April and is the kind of player you should be watching over the season's last 30 games. He appears to be figuring out what it takes to be an NHL player, and has the upside to play on the second line for a long time for the Senators.
On Tuesday the Flames recalled F Mikael Backlund who had accumulated 22 points in 47 games this season at Abbotsford (AHL). With Nigel Dawes having gone on IR with a leg injury the team is looking for one of it's top prospects to fill that void. Backlund has been a slow starter at each level thus far in his career (Sweden, the Western Hockey League, and now the AHL), and shift to shift consistency remains the biggest concern. He does have very good playmaking skills, and could one day be a top liner on the Flames. He's only 21 years old at the moment so he's far from a finished product. Watch this short audition for now. He's only a watch list guy for now unless you're in a Keeper/Dynasty format.
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Observation Deck
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Written by Ray Calder HockeyObserver.com
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Wednesday, 20 January 2010 23:23 |
Welcome to this week's installment of the Observation Deck. I see upwards of 10 games a week via Center Ice or in person and this notebook will contain some scouting impressions combined with some numbers when necessary. Lets get to week 16:
Most times in this column I steer clear of telling you how well somebody like Alexander Ovechkin or Sidney Crosby is playing because you already know those things. I want to open this weeks column though with a note about another star - the Shark's Patrick Marleau. If you're seeing any San Jose games you know this has been their most competitive player night in and night out. He's been downright fierce in his attention to detail with regard to backchecking, and helping out in his own end. At the offensive end he continues to show the same playmaking instincts he's always had, and for the second straight year looks on his way to a career high in goals (had 38 last year, and has 34 already this season). He's going to get some MVP votes and they'll be well deserved because of the well rounded game he's playing.
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Observation Deck
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Written by Ray Calder HockeyObserver.com
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Thursday, 14 January 2010 00:20 |
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Welcome to this week's installment of the Observation Deck. I see upwards of 10 games a week via Center Ice or in person and this notebook will contain some scouting impressions combined with some numbers when necessary. Lets get to week 15:
The Rangers are still having a terrible time scoring goals but one guy who has heated up over the last month or so has been Brandon Dubinsky. He has points in 7 of his last 11 contests and is looking as comfortable as he has since the first dozen games or so of last season (when he was
Boston's Blake Wheeler is an ideal acquisition if you can get him. The combination of size and skills that made him an early pick of the Phoenix Coyotes back in 2004 have converged and we're seeing a glimpse of a player who has the ability to be an annual 70-75 point producer. In the game against Ottawa last week I thought he was the best player on the ice for either club. He's capable of much more than the 21 goals he scored as a rookie one season ago, and as the team continues to look for offense it's a safe bet they'll continue to add to his responsibilities.
Detroit's Darren Helm is the kind of player that really jumps out at you when you watch the game closely but you'd never take a second look at in a skills competition.Turning just 23 years old this coming week, Helm has been given some ice time while the Red Wings struggle of late with injuries (Tomas Holmstrom, Johan Franzen,Jason Williams are all out at the moment). While he once had 41 goals as a Western Hockey Leaguer, he projects as a slightly more skilled Kris Draper type - a third liner with enough skating skills to not look out of place on the second line. Prior to the loss to the Islanders Tuesday, Helm had scored 5 goals in his last 5 games, and is the kind of short term addition you should be looking at when injury or illness strikes your fantasy roster.
Still in Detroit, goaltender Jimmy Howard had probably the best performance I had seen of any netminder this season when he turned away 51 of 52 Los Angeles King shots in a 2-1 victory. He has been the far more consistent of the two Wings goalies and it's clear that as long as he's healthy he has wrested the #1 role from Chris Osgood and should keep it. In fantasy/roto now would be a good time to trade for him as I expect that once Detroit gets something closer to a healthy lineup they'll start to win more games and outperform their first half record.
Similar to Darren Helm, Ottawa's Nick Foligno is at his best when he's playing a gritty, confident, uptempo game. Of late I think he's looked very good in the games I've viewed and since he's available in just about any league he should be on your watch list. I have claimed him and put him on bench's in a couple of leagues, and expect that we'll see some more points from him as long as his play continues at the current level. He's been very active and his ice time appears to be on the rise.
Also in Ottawa I wanted to point out something that a couple of emailers asked about last week - specifically what to do about the very inconsistent Alexei Kovalev. That question was right in my wheelhouse as Kovalev has been one of my favorite players since his draft year (Rangers , 1991). In his last 10 games he's had 9 points (4 goals and 5 assists). Those are outstanding numbers and any fantasy leaguer would be pleased with that level of production. The interesting thing is that he picked up all 9 points in only 5 contests meaning he was scoreless in 5 as well. If you're in a cumulative (count points toward the full season) then you don't care, but if you're playing in head to head formats (weekly) a guy like Kovalev can be downright maddening putting up as many as 6-7 points in a given week or giving you nothing.You can't really do anything about the streakiness of the player- you merely have to decide if you can put up with the inconsistency. This is done by looking at the relative strength of the rest of your roster.
On the blueline one of the best stories of the 2009/10 season is taking place in Tampa Bay where Kurtis Foster is up to 7 goals and 19 points in his first 35 contests on a defense corps that's pretty talented. You'll recall that in March of 2008 in a game against San Jose, Foster crashed into the end boards and suffered a severe leg injury (broken left femur) that many thought would end his career. Fast forward nearly two years and the now 28 year old is using his simple approach and booming point shot to lead the Lightning defense in scoring. As a player that the team will continue to use in power play situations, you should feel confident in grabbing him off waivers for your fantasy teams.
Colorado's Chris Stewart is another player that seems to jump out every time I see him. While Marek Svatos has struggled both with injury and production (only 6 goals in 35 games), and David Jones was lost for the season to injury, Stewart has been a revelation looking very capable of his first 30 goal season, while playing both a hard nosed style, and yet being one of the teams better defensive forwards as well (currently a plus 4). He's available in most leagues, and at only 22 years of age should be looked at as a very valuable commodity in keeper/dynasty formats as well.
One player who just got a callup and you should be ready to add to your lineups is Toronto's Tyler Bozak. He is the prized college signing of GM Brian Burke last April and despite bouts with injury and the H1N1 flu this season at the American League level he was deemed as being somebody who could help the Leafs right now. He was immediately inserted on the team's top line alongside Phil Kessel and having played just 2 NHL games has potted 2 assists. He has a polished, two way game which fits well with Kessel who will never be mistaken as being defensively responsible, and he should have plenty of room to work with as teams try to take away his more skilled linemate. Watch him closely and if you play in a league with liberal transaction/ waiver rules look to add him as a matchup play at a minimum.
If you have start/sit questions, trade questions, or anything else hockey or fantasy hockey related please email me at
This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
. I'd love to hear from you. |
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Observation Deck
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Written by Ray Calder HockeyObserver.com
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Wednesday, 06 January 2010 23:11 |
Welcome to this week's installment of the Observation Deck. I see upwards of 10 games a week via Center Ice or in person and this notebook will contain some scouting impressions combined with some numbers when necessary. Lets get to week 14:
When Chris Kunitz went down with a significant injury (tear in abdominal wall) the Penguins recalled prospect Luca Caputi from Wilkes-Barre/ Scranton (AHL). Caputi, who is only 21, is expected to play as one of the top six forwards on a Penguin offense that currently ranks 6th in the league. He's at least a year away from full time duty at the NHL level, but his package of skills is such that he'd be a decent short term fill in for you off the waiver wire if you had Kunitz, or if you need an injury/illness replacement.
The Bruins just added free agent Miroslav Satan to their lineup for the balance of the 2009/10 season to try and boost their offense. Satan who is 35-years old has scored 59 points (29 goals,30 assists) per 82 games for his career (entering 2009/10), but at this point after struggling to score even 40 points while in Pittsburgh he should only be a consideration for you if your league has depleted your forward options on the waiver wire when you need to make a short term replacement.
The Islanders Robbie Schremp is showing signs of life for an Islanders team desperate for goals. He has points in three of his last four games played, and maybe more importantly has been a minus player (plus/minus rating) only once in the last nine games. The scoring skills are still there but the desire has been lacking. Watch him closely as maybe he's finally realized that if he doesn't make the most of this chance there might not be another one.
Speaking of the Islanders, the team is expected to get netminder Rick DiPietro back from injury on the current road trip. After seeing Dwayne Roloson win three of four recently while allowing only six goals in that span, I still think Roloson will get his share of the starts. If the team was to move him someplace via trade his fantasy/roto value would skyrocket as he's been a very steadying influence on a club that averages right around 2.4 goals a contest. Roloson has been underrated for fantasy in the season's first half.
Colorado prospect T.J. Hensick has been tearing it up at the American Hockey League level and should get another chance in the Avalanche lineup very soon. He was the AHL player of the month for December scoring at least one point in 12 of the 13 contests Lake Erie played. Hensick has the skills to be an annual 55-65 point player, but a lack of size and strength has slowed his adjustment as an NHL player. His next opportunity is coming.
Another AHL standout who did get recalled and will play at the big league level at least for a short audition is Calgary C Jason Jaffray called up when Craig Conroy was unable to play with a lower body injury. At Abbotsford Jaffray was leading the team in goals (13) assists (17),and plus minus(+11). If Jaffray starts to show up in the boxscore he'd be worth an add for this year only as he's already 28 and is no longer a prospect but might be able to help you depending on where the Flames place him in their lineup.
The player whose name is on everyone's lips following the thrilling conclusion of the World Junior Championships early this week is Canada's Jordan Eberle. An Oilers prospect, Eberle had eight goals and five assists for Team Canada, and earned the tournament's Most Valuable Player. He'll return to Regina (Western Hockey League) where he'll need to continue to add some strength and refine his play without the puck. He has excellent goal scorers hands, and will try and force his way into the Oilers lineup next fall at training camp when he'll still be just 20 years of age. Keeper leaguers should definitely have him on their radar as he'll have an easier time breaking into the Edmonton lineup than he would in some other places. He's a future 35-40 goal man at the NHL level.
With a .940 save percentage, and 2.01 Goals against Average at Manchester, the time is drawing nearer when the Kings should give super prospect Jonathan Bernier a chance to be their #1 stopper. Jonathan Quick the team's current #1 has been right around the middle of the league in Goals Against Average while ranking closer to the bottom in Save Percentage. It's not that Quick has been particularly bad, it's just that Bernier has a much greater upside and the team has been waiting for this kind of performance at the American Hockey League level before rewarding the youngster with a callup. I've seen Bernier a few times this season and he's playing a controlled, smart style that the Kings front office will be pleased with. He's a smaller goalie (5-11, 180 or so) so he doesn't have the size to make up for a lack of fundamentals.
The Blues are a team to watch now that they have replaced coach Andy Murray with the younger and more player development friendly Davis Payne who was coaching the teams American Hockey League affiliate at Peoria. Specifically, I'll be watching to see if the play of Erik Johnson, Patrick Berglund,and TJ Oshie picks up. All three are elite level talents who encountered difficulty earlier this year when they fell into Murray's doghouse at different times. Overall, the Blues have disappointed this season. Heading into the second half of 09/10 watch this space for updates on what I'm seeing from one of the league's younger, more exciting teams.
A couple of readers last week have asked how high a price they should pay in order to secure Anaheim's Bobby Ryan in trade. My answer has been that for those in Keeper/ Dynasty leagues he should fall right in the second tier below the Ovechkin/Crosby/Malkin group at the top. He should be valued similar to Anze Kopitar, Zach Parise, or Steve Stamkos. I traded Dustin Penner for him in one league (keeper),and Mikko Koivu for him in a single year contest.
If you have start/sit questions, trade questions, or anything else hockey or fantasy hockey related please email me at
This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
. I'd love to hear from you. |
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Observation Deck
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Written by Ray Calder HockeyObserver.com
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Wednesday, 30 December 2009 22:53 |
Welcome to this week's installment of the Observation Deck. I see upwards of 10 games a week via Center Ice or in person and this notebook will contain some scouting impressions combined with some numbers when necessary. Lets get to week 13.
When Ottawa lost Daniel Alfredsson (shoulder injury) last week some of you had questions as to who should be picked up off waivers. Without knowing who's available in your league's, one name that comes to mind is Detroit's Todd Bertuzzi who has 12 goals already and has been exceptional as injuries have mounted in the Motor City. Bertuzzi has been durable and is averaging exactly 3 shots a game.
Washington and Columbus got together in a trade Monday when the Caps sent their captain (Chris Clark) and D Milan Jurcina to the Jackets in exchange for 30 year old Jason Chimera. I'm intrigued by where the Capitals may elect to play their new acquisition. He's best cast as a third line left winger. He's an exceptional skater but his hands have kept him from using those wheels in a scoring role. If he was to find himself on one of the top two lines surrounded by what the Caps have as their top 6 forwards he could really surprise.
Perhaps the least prominent name among the league's top 20 defensemen scorers is Toronto's Ian White. He's always been known as a solid puck mover who's best skill was his passing ability but this season
he's registered 8 goals already. He's still capable of overhandling the puck and turning it over, but it's clear that he's doing more than enough to be a fantasy factor and yet he seems to be available in most of your
leagues.
The Ducks Teemu Selanne (broken hand) has resumed skating and is due back within a week. If he was dropped in your league when he got hurt you should grab him up. He was on a 40 goal pace at the time of his injury and it's clear he'll have a prominent role with the Ducks the rest of this season.
When the Rangers lost Vaclav Prospal for 3-4 weeks with a knee injury, there was much speculation who will step into a larger role and try and pick up some of the slack with their second leading scorer out.
One of Erik Christensen,Pierre- Alex Parenteau (currently at AHL Hartford), or Artem Anisimov appear to be in line to be asked to do that. If you need to replace Prospal and the choices in your league are thin, I believe that Anisimov is the guy that should benefit most. After scoring 37 goals at Hartford (AHL) last season I'm sure more was expected of him than 15 points in 38 games thus far, but even those numbers have him ranked 9th among rookie scorers (entering Dec. 30 games). He's got enough skill to play on the top two lines, and also possesses enough smarts that he could skate on the third line and be trusted with more of a checking role.
One guy who has ascended the depth chart and may stay there for a bit is Kings RW Teddy Purcell who is playing on the top line in Los Angeles. Purcell has not produced fantasy worthy numbers (3 goals and 3 assists in 36 games) but he's now 24 and figures to get his best audition to see if he can fulfill a scoring role for the team going forward. The Kings recognize that he boasts smarts, creativity, plenty of size, and an ability to get his teammates involved. Keeper leaguers should be watching to see what his second half numbers look like.
I saw what was likely the best game to date of Kyle Okposo's career last week (1 goal, 2 assists) when the Islanders played the Rangers. Okposo is a work in progress but is one of the more talented youngsters on Long Island right now. He plays much bigger than his listed size, shows a very quick release on his wrist and snapshots, and seems very adept at battling into and setting up in front of the opposition crease. His value lies more in keeper leagues but watch to see if he can string more efforts like last weeks against the Blueshirts together. I would not hesitate to pick him up as a short term injury replacement over the second half of the season when one of my regulars goes down with injury.
New Jersey's Niclas Bergfors appeared in this space not long after it debuted. If I was handing out a mid-season Calder trophy (Rookie of the Year) he would be my recipient. He has 9 points in 13 December games (entering Dec. 30) and is shooting the puck more often of late. I'm sure the team would like to see him improve on his current minus 2 (plus/minus) rating, but as a rookie his play is trending in the right direction and his night to night consistency has to have the Devils coaches pleased.
One guy who appears to be on his way to a 25 goal season without anyone noticing is the Predators Patric Hornqvist. More sharpshooter than playmaker, Hornqvist is playing like a smaller version of the Wings Tomas Holmstrom. He'll do his best work crashing and banging around the crease and getting off his terrific wrist shot. He's not a pretty skater, but his offensive game has to be a welcome development in Music City.
As we're nearing the midway point of the season it's becoming obvious that the Thrashers are going to need to address their goaltending woes if they ever hope to contend. It's clear that Kari Lehtonen (chronically injured), and Ondrej Pavelec (.906 save percentage, 3.42 G.A.A.) are simply not good enough in supporting an offense that currently ranks 3rd overall in the NHL. If the team was to acquire one of Montreal's netminders (Jaroslav Halak, Carey Price) or one of Boston's (Tim Thomas, Tuukka Rask) the incoming goalie would immediately increase in fantasy value.
One name that should be on watch lists for the second half of this season and a key target for keeper/dynasty leaguers is the Sharks Logan Couture. Not that the already lethal San Jose offense needs another weapon but what Couture is doing at the AHL level is noteworthy. Through his first 21 contests there he's scored 11 goals while adding 20 assists. All the more amazing is the fact that he won't turn 21 years old until this season is nearly complete. He's an extremely smart playmaker with a consistent work ethic. When he lands on one of the top two lines with the Sharks he's going to produce excellent numbers.
If you have start/sit questions, trade questions or anything else hockey or fantasy hockey related please email me at
This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
. I'd love to hear from you.
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Observation Deck
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Written by Ray Calder HockeyObserver.com
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Thursday, 24 December 2009 01:32 |
Welcome to this week's installment of the Observation Deck. I see upwards of 10 games a week via Center Ice or in person and this notebook will contain some scouting impressions combined with some numbers when necessary. Lets get to week 12. |
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