I've seen Sonnanstine pitch many times...his #'s do not tell you how effective he his...grab him if you can...

Jason-

It will take more space than provided to answer your question about my outlook on the Cubs, but if you are still interested I can cover that in an article next week.

There is some depth, but I'm not ready to say either Neimann or Hellickson will be any better than a typical rookie pitcher. What I tried to say is the fantasy assets of 2008 - Garza, Shields, Sonnanstine and Kazmir - threw a lot of innings and should be expected to pitch less effectively in 2009.

Which one(s) I don't know, but I think at least one is going to be drafted and bomb.

good research kevin.

out of curiosity, what do you think about the cubs this upcoming season?

I think a lot of people are skeptical of the Rays bullpen heading into 2009. It will be interesting to see if guys like Howell and Balfour can repeat their 2008 performances. I feel their rotation is their strong point however, but there is a small chance that they turn to the rotation to find a closer, although unlikely. I believe that Dan Wheeler or Chad Bradford would get a shot before any of the starters will.

Nieman would get the shot over Price. Have not heard anyone in Ray organization even suggest Price as closer

I know we are focusing on TB starters, but their closing situation does not inspire confidence. Percival is getting up there, and Wheeler is adequate, but -

Any chance one or more of these starters goes to the bullpen this year and becomes a closer candidate? Might they give the Joba treatment to Price? Or could someone like Shields or Sonnanstine have sucess as the TB closer of the future?

well kevin, i completely disagree with everything you pretty much had to say. I have lived in Florida all my life and have been following the Rays since their existence. with price being such a strikeout pitcher, this is going to completely hurt the Rays rotation due to the fact of how high his pitch count will be. The minors and the pros are a huge difference and the pros take a lot more pitches than the minors do. He gets many of his strikeouts by getting the hitters to swing out of the zone and in the pros, guys like Alex Rodriguez won't swing at the stuff out of the zone like that. Overall, I believe that he definatley will be a failure to the rotation and the bullpen is going to be getting their workout this upcoming season. You need to study up more on the Rays if you're going to write about them.

Jason, not sure how a high strikeout pitcher hurts a rotation, especially one like price; you have to compare him not in a vacuum but to what he is replacing, and the marginal stress on the bullpen even if you are right is negligible. remember that it is not as if he will stink it up and yet remain in the rotation to stress the pen for a full season.

as far as swinging and missing goes, you are right that A-Rod types wont be fooled necessarily, but there are far more weak hitters that he will face. when you throw in the fact that hitting is a neurological exercise for 95% of players that cannot consciously resist or even determine when a pitch will be out of the zone, i think your view is flawed.

you might be right but not for the reasons you stated, IMO. interesting theory nonetheless.

Jason-

Thanks for your response. While I understand why you feel the way you do about Price's success. By no means do I feel that Price is currently a Cy Young pitcher, I do feel that he will be able to succeed in major league baseball. He, like every other pitcher who has played professional baseball, will have to adjust to his setting.

You mentioned A-Rod in your comment, and conveniently enough the two have faced each other before, which was on September 14th, in which he was struck out swinging by Price (http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday...de=gameday)

Although this is a small sample size, it shows that Price was able to strike out the slugger with an off speed pitch down the middle of the plate. In his second at bat against Price, the southpaw made a mistake and left a fastball right in his wheelhouse which resulted in a ground rule double.

In the 7th inning of that game, he was also able to get Derek Jeter to ground into a double play and strike out Jason Giambi, two very respected hitters.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, this all comes from one game, but at such a young age and obtaining such a strong skill set, expectations are high for Price.

I'm curious to know how you seem to feel that he will be a failure, while a majority of others feel that he will succeed.

Jason- I agree with Talbot. I hope that the Rays will be rejuvenated come opening day to avenge their loss, but in order for them to compete in the AL East again this year, they are going to have to be ready to pitch a lot of innings. I think it will be interesting to see how the bullpen performs this season, maybe I'll cover that later on.

One good thing about the youth of the staff is all of these players still haven't hit their prime age as pitchers, and have room to improve.

Mitch Talbot is also an option from the farm to use during the season. I am also concerned about the workloads from last year with the longer season and everyone 26 and younger.

Price going back down to AAA is an option, but I feel it's unlikely. The Rays already unloaded Edwin Jackson, and it wouldn't surprise me if they unloaded Niemann. Once the free agent market shifts around a bit more, if the Rays are still without a bat, there is still the possibility of Niemann leaving town.

Eric- You mentioned that injuries may be a problem, but I think the Rays have much more depth than the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox gambled coming into 2008 with five set guys and little help in the minors (Charlie Haegar doesn't count), where as the Rays still have some decent pitching prospects including Niemann and Hellickson that can fill in for a short period of time. I think Friedman is confident in his staff since he traded Jackson.

I like Shields over Kazmir because of Kazmir's elevated BB/9, fly ball rate, and injury risk.

Great point Jason, was just about posting about Jeff Niemann as the 5th starter myself. I like his chances of making the rotation too.

Niemann is out of options and the Rays are not going to let a former top pick walk and I don't think they are ready to throw him into the pen just yet although I wouldn't mind seeing him become a Broxton-type guy. The problem with Niemann is that he is too slow to the plate and runners don't hesitate to run on him.

Price still is heavily reliant upon his fastball and slider and does not use his changeup too much. I wouldn't mind having him go back to AAA to work on his changeup and give Niemann 6-8 starts to decide what his future is (if he's not traded first). What I don't want to see is a Joba-like situation where Price is in the pen and then sent back to AAA to be stretched out because that is lost time

No concerns that injuries will derail the rotation or that the extra month of pitching will have a fatigue effect this season a la the Chicago White Sox?

In my league we use k/bb instead of k's. That hurts Kazmir's value & helps Shields. That said, i want Price. I'm a sucker for that young stuff.

nicely done , kevin.
sonnanstine's efforts coming down the stretch (2 wins vs boston) were impressive .
similiarly , shields and garza have demonstrated some mental toughness and are serviceable 3rd and 4th starters .
but kazmir is the only rays' starter that i would "target" on draft day .
it's all about the K's .