Despite our many thoughtful pre-season calculations, some of which we would have swore by in March but wouldn’t be caught dead reciting in June, we are coming up on the halfway mark for the 2009 MLB season and there are several surprises that have baseball fans’ scratching their heads. 

I wrote about some of these “statistical anomalies” for the Great Fantasy Debate a few weeks ago, here (http://fantasypros911.com/anthony-the-top-10-statistical-anomalies-of-the-2009-mlb-season-so-far.html), but this week’s challenge is to create an entire team of such anomalies.  Commander in Chief Paul Greco didn’t explicitly state these needed to be pleasant surprises, but that’s how I took it, and that’s what I’ll be sharing with you here in Week 11. 

A surprise, I realize, doesn’t necessarily constitute a good thing, but that’s certainly how I like to think of it, anyway.  I know I’d be pretty disappointed if my wife told me there was a “surprise” waiting for me at home and the big reveal wasn’t a delicious fish taco dinner with all the trimmings but rather learning that my prized 1986 Topps Traded Barry Bonds rookie card had accidentally gone through the wash.  Technically, that might be considered a surprise, but personally I feel that tarnishes the word “surprise” unnecessarily.  A horrible “accident” really might have been a better word. 

But I digress. 

Before I unveil my team (unless you cheated and shot a glance down the page already…tsk-tsk), I’d like to say a bit about my rationale here for choosing these players.  The players that made my team tend to fall into two general categories: “out-of-nowhere” types, who tend to be younger guys out to make their mark, and what you could call “over-performers,” who tend to be older players out to prove they’ve still got it.  Each are surprises in their own way, but obviously the out-of-nowhere types seem like bigger surprises because they’re not household names.  But really, any time you can get greater than even value for your draft or auction grabs, be they from rookies or veterans, it’s a statistical boon and that translates to fantasy success.  So, without further ado, here’s my First-Half All-Surprise Team for the 2009 MLB season.  Enjoy.

C-      J. Varitek- Varitek has always been a solid option at catcher, for the BoSox and fantasy owners alike, but w/ 10 HR already (tied for 3^rd among catchers), he is on pace for 27 HR, which would be a personal best.  He’s only hit 20 homers or more 3 times in his 13 year career, so this is indeed unusual, and its not like he’s playing at the new Yankee Stadium to explain this.  Of course, his .236 batting average won’t help you, but the unforeseen power out of a late round stop-gap is pretty sweet.

2B-    A. Hill-  I know this guy has always had the skill set to succeed, but even Ron Shandler, who’s been touting him in the Forecaster for years, didn’t foresee this.  He’s leading the league in hits and slugging .500, up 140 pts. from his injury-plagued 2008 season and up 40 pts from 2007.  The result is a projected 94-36-112-5-.310 campaign that will surely have him flying off draft boards in the first 5 rounds of deeper leagues next year.  My bet is he comes pretty darn close to those numbers and maintains his inflammatory hitting on into the fall.

SS-    J. Bartlett- Well, this has to count as an out-of-nowhere candidate for sure.  Out since 5/24 with an ankle sprain unfortunately, Bartlett was sailing to a career (dare I say MVP?) year for the Rays, hitting a staggering .372 before the injury.  He’s stealing bases (14, which we expected) and hitting bombs (7, which we didn’t).  Those 7 HR are 1 more than his last 2 seasons combined, actually, and though he may not be able to keep up this torrid pace, he’s still one of the biggest surprises of the year and is the top-ranked SS in CBS leagues.  I keep trying to trade for him, trying the whole “Buy High” theory, but it just ain’t working- I guess peeps just want to keep themselves some Bartlett.

3B-    B. Inge-  Sure, I could have slotted this guy at catcher, where he’s way more valuable, but I’ll take him at 3^rd or CI in a deeper mixed league too.  His 13 HR and 40 RBI mean he’s on pace for another 30/100 season, but wait, he’s never had one of those!  Well, I guess that constitutes a surprise then, now doesn’t it? Perhaps even more unlikely: his .273 average is more than 35 points over his career average of .238 which is indeed remarkable.  Now to be realistic, that will probably come down as his career high BABIP of .323 regresses to the mean, making him an ideal “sell high” candidate.  But he still deserves props as a first half find for sure.

OF-   R. Ibanez-  Certainly not out of nowhere, but just as certainly over-performing, Ibanez’s 21 HR are within 2 of his 2008 total of 23, and already matches his 2007 total.  It looks like the change of scenery, namely that explosive Phillies’ lineup, has helped catapult him into the elite echelon of aging superstars that can carry your fantasy team  (Tori Hunter, anyone?)  At age 37, nobody expected him to have quite such a power surge, but to be fair, he’s driven in 100 runs for the last 3 years.  Some smart fantasy owners no doubt saw that writing on the wall and are reaping the fruits of their research right now.  Darned fruit-reaping fantasy owners.   

OF-  B. Zobrist-  What can I say about Zobrist that hasn’t been said already?  The guy is SS and OF eligible, which is awesome, and he’s absolutely on fire, batting .312 now with 12 HR and 7 SB (sorta the inverse power/speed-wise of Mr. Bartlett, if you think about it.)  But, even so, he didn’t exactly come out of nowhere.  Zobrist had 12 bombs in 198 at bats last year or 1 every 16.5 AB.  Sure, there’s been an up-tick in power this year (1 every 12.9 AB) but it wasn’t unforeseen.  Opportunity is the deal-maker here as the Rays have played Zobrist all over the field in an effort to get his bat in the lineup.  And with injuries to Iwamura and Bartlett of late, that hasn’t been very difficult at all.  

SP-  K.  Millwood- I thought about choosing Edwin Jackson, who I basically traded for Jason Werth in a little over-zealous trading earlier this season, but really his age, IP max.  and peripherals were all at the perfect point coming in to this season for him to emerge as a breakout 3^rd year SP.  So, really no surprise there.  Instead, I’ve chosen 35 year old veteran Kevin Millwood, who has anchored a TEX rotation that really needed a leader for a young staff with his revelatory 2.72 ERA and 1.21 WHIP to go with an impressive 6 and 4 record.  Millwood is coming off back to back shutouts against league rivals the Red Sox and Blue Jays and, like the Rangers as a whole, is one of the more pleasant surprises of the 2009 MLB season.

RP-  Trevor Hoffman- Ageless wonder Trevor Hoffman is a no-brainer here with his stunningly perfect 15 straight saves without giving up a run.  Many fantasy analysts (myself included) wrote him off as a 41 year old has-been, but that just doesn’t give the career saves leader the credit he deserves. Behind Yovani Gallardo, Ryan Braun, and a trio of innings-eaters named Suppan, Looper, and Bush, the Brewers have played their way into first place in the NL Central and will continue to give Hoffman the save opportunities you want out of a #1 RP.  It’s embarrassing to say the guy with 569 career saves is a surprise first-half RP, but his perfect season thus far means he is over-performing spectacularly and that was unexpected, indeed.

It’s been a wild year already, filled with surprises on and off the field.  Hopefully, you saw the writing on the fantasypros911.com wall, took some good advice from the pros, and saw some of these players’ career years coming.  And if you didn’t, well there’s still time.  Second half surprises are a whole other animal and now’s the time to make a move to grab those wily critters and make a run for your fantasy title today.

Who has the best First-Half All-Surprise Team?
Currently no polls available to vote

For the record, an update on the value of this card at press time reveals it goes for a whopping $40.00.  Do the math on how much each of his 762 career homeruns added value to this card and you get another surprising figure: approximately 5 cents/per homerun.  

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Patrick, Your Compliments Make Me Blush!
written by Anthony Catanzaro, June 19, 2009

But seriously, you caught me on the player name typos- I think that's the first time too. Perhaps I got a little hasty with my typing to meet deadline. I don't necessarily agree with you on my liberal use of "I" though or other style errors, and I didn't feel anything like that detracted from the whole, but you're entitled.

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written by Patrick DiCaprio, June 18, 2009

i dont know why you guys are only looking at pleasant surprises! The failures are far more compelling this year. like a few others there is too much "I" in this article. and player name misspellings...it is Jayson Werth! and Torii Hunter! there were quite a few style/grammar/technical errors.

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