After talking early season surprises last week, the task at hand is to construct a team of players who can potentially carry your team to a barnstorming second half. If all goes to plan, the result will be a fantasy baseball “Cinderella Story” that would make Carl Spackler proud.

As there was no position criteria provided, I will run with the same positions as used in the previous week. The players listed all fall into a certain category – you should be able to obtain them at less than pre-season market value due to a lack of performance or injury. Take a flier on some of these fellas if your team needs a boost, and hopefully your squad will fire up like Chris Tucker after two gallons of raspberry Kool-Aid!

Catcher:

Russell Martin

The great man Patrick DiCaprio did warn us about the danger of drafting Martin prior to the 2009 season, but it is pretty hard to believe that the big fella finally hit his first home run just today. Whilst he has given us 7 steals, his .249 average to go with his solitary long ball has been a major disappointment. Checking his numbers, it appears that one reason for Martin’s power outage could be his increased ground ball rate. Some numbers to ponder:

2007: 48.4 GB%, 1.42 GB/FB ratio
2008: 51.1 GB%, 1.73 GB/FB
2009: 51.4 GB%, 1.80 GB/FB

As evidenced above, Martin is increasing his ground ball percentage as time marches on. It can also be noted though, that just a couple of weeks ago his Ground Ball rate was at 52.8%, with a GB/FB rate of 2.03, so maybe he is righting the ship somewhat.  Bottom line is that his owners may have had enough, and with a dearth of gun catching options available - now is the time to take a flier on Martin.

First Base:

Aubrey Huff

After a stellar 2008, Huff has just been plodding through 2009. The thing to remember here is that “The Huff” is a second half juggernaut. In 2008 he hit .332 in the second half. In 2007 he hit .309 in comparison to his first half of .258. A current BABIP of .292 suggests some improvement is also to come, and with Huff being one of the less “sexy” names at the first base spot he probably won’t cost you a packet to acquire. Get him and enjoy his strong second Huff!

Second Base:

Dan Uggla

Uggla’s 0.216 batting average to date makes him a solid trade target. While Dan isn’t the kind of hitter who is going to challenge for a batting title, a respectable 3-year average of 0.262 means he isn’t going to kill you either. A closer look at Uggla’s numbers in 2009 show that he has actually improved his walk to strikeout rate. His BB/K rate is currently 0.68, well up from previous seasons of 0.41 and 0.45. Combined with a BABIP of a lowly 0.228 and the second best contact rate of his career, Uggla is due for good things for the rest of 2009.

Third Base:

Aramis Ramirez

Out of mind, out of sight. Hopefully the injury to Ramirez gives you the opportunity to trade for him before he goes back to being the best hitter in the Cubs’ lineup - not that it would be too hard to pull that off. A-Ram has started hitting off a tee recently, so it shouldn’t be too long before we see him back at Wrigley mashing long balls onto Waveland Avenue. Whilst there is some risk involved with coming back from a dislocation injury, there aren’t too many third base targets out there with Ramirez’ hitting credentials. While others take a chance on Chris Davis or Garrett Atkins, I will pay a little more to go with the massive upside of Aramis Ramirez. The way the Chicago offense is struggling right now, Sweet Lou will be doing everything in his power to get him back in the lineup. You should do the same.

Shortstop:

Jimmy Rollins

“Is Rollins done? Is he getting old before our eyes or is he injured?” These are some of the comments I have heard in relation to a guy who I admit has long been one of my fantasy favourites. Jimmy is not old, he is 30. Sure, he has been terrible, but I have faith in some sort of bounce back this year. While I don’t expect him to reach 20 home runs, I do expect him to give it a shake. Rollins’ K rate, ground balls and fly balls are relatively close to his usual rates, but his BABIP is sitting at .225. - Way below his career rate of .296.  I expect his average will be on the rise very shortly, his steals will come around and he will hit his 15-18 Home Runs. Get Jimmy before he starts rollin’.

Outfield:

Jay Bruce

Ok, it looks a little ugly on the surface, but remember last season when Jay was called up and it was “Brucemania” in Cincy? So far in 2009, Bruce seems to be taking an “all-or-nothing” approach to the plate. A 47.3% fly ball rate is helping him leave the yard, but his BABIP is taking a hit - it currently sits at .205, way down from last season’s .298 line. The good news is that his walk rate has increased by three percent and his strikeout rate is down four percent. If you are looking for a high risk/high reward guy, the pedigree is there, so “Bruce Almighty!” is definitely worth going after as a rebound candidate for the rest of 2009.

Chris Young

Those who drafted Young did so expecting a poor batting average to go with some pop and some steals, but he really has been fairly putrid so far in 2009. Young’s BABIP is currently .250, and he has a ridiculously high IFBB% of 26.4. Over the last 14 days however Young has hit .324 with 5 Doubles, 2 Home Runs and 3 steals. If you want to make a move on Young now is the time, particularly as he has a slight groin issue right now which may make his owners keen to get any sort of value for him.

Corey Hart

Hart has been somewhat of an enigma over the last few seasons, giving fantasy owners visions of a 30-30 season but not delivering on that promise. A slow start to 2009 has meant another drop in Hart’s fantasy stock to the point where he can probably be had in a deal for those wanting to take a bit of a punt. Even though Corey has been swinging at fewer balls out of the strike zone, he has still been whiffing at an alarming rate of 24.7%, a career high. Interestingly though his BB rate has also increased, giving him a current BB/K rate of 0.38, well up from 0.25 last season. Hart’s stolen base opportunities have been down, in part due to the fact that he has been shuffled around the line-up from pillar to post. Why then do I think he is a good pick up? Over the last two weeks he has 3 Home Runs, 2 triples, 3 doubles, 10 RBI and 2 SBs, while hitting at a .366 clip. He has a very good lineup around him and even though this one may have a bit of “gut feel” about it, I think as the weather heats up, Corey will get so hot that we will all need our sunglasses on (and not just at night) to shield ourselves from Hart’s hot bat!

The Starter:

Ricky Nolasco

With an ERA of 7.15 and only 3 wins to his name, Nolasco would not seem to be the ideal pickup for a big run at the league title, but that is exactly what he is. His peripheral numbers are actually pretty reasonable: Around 8 K/9 and 2.48 BB/9, giving him a 4.05 FIP. He is giving up a bucket load of hits, but his BABIP currently stands at a whopping .380. Whilst some of the blame here can be apportioned to the Marlins defense, a lot of has to come down to plain old bad luck. Ricky is still getting batters to swing out of the strike zone (27 %), suggesting his “stuff” has the potential to get it done. While he is some sort of injury risk given his workload and propensity for the breaking pitch, I see Nolasco as a prime buy low starter to get right now. Don’t be picky – go get Ricky!

The Reliever:

Kerry Wood

After a horrendous return to Wrigley Field last week where nothing went right for “Woody”, the numbers across the board are looking ugly. With a storied injury history and bouts of control trouble, now is a good time to try and get Kerry Wood from the closer bargain bin. Sure, it sounds a little crazy as he may be only a blown save or two away from losing the gig, but I believe he will be given every chance to work his way back and become a serviceable closer option for both Cleveland and your team. Even while blowing leads all over North America he has maintained a “K” rate of over 10K/9, and opposing hitters are batting 0.248 against him. With Wood, it’s all about the control. He is a fierce competitor who will do everything in his power to get back on track, so take a chance and get him at a discount while you can. You want bargains? Go got Wood.

To wrap this baby up, here are a few more names of notorious second half studs or just blokes that may be able to help your team take the title in 2009. Roy Oswalt, Stephen Drew, Adam LaRoche (he lives for the second half), Juan Rivera and the evergreen John Smoltz.

Pull the trigger, take a chance and live the “Cinderella Story”. You can take you league from out of nowhere, and proudly state to your league - in the immortal words of Jean Paul Sartre - 'Au revoir, gopher'!

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Left Side
written by Duncan Kellaway, July 09, 2009

I hope you're right Boris because I need both A-Ram and Jimmy firing on all cylinders for for me in the second half! I also see that since you wrote this Nolasco has suddenly started pitching like a hall of famer - good call on that one!!

Once again, great work. I can't remember seeing a bad article by you yet.

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