FREE Fantasy Baseball Guide
Follow FantasyPros911 Here
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Other Articles You Might Like
14 May 2009 |
|
Diverging Canadians
Gone are the days of Larry Walker being the lone respectable Canadian in the Major Leagues, as the country has begun producing multiple All-Star caliber players. Two of these players have taken opposite starts to the season: Jason Bay is leading the Red Sox to a blistering start while the Dodgers have a healthy lead in the NL West despite the struggles of catcher Russell Martin. I am going to take a look at the prognosis for these players for the rest of the year, and how it will affect your fantasy squad.
Jason Bay – OF, Red Sox
Not to toot my own horn, but I drafted Bay for every team I could this year, as I saw big things from him with a full season in the potent Red Sox line-up. He has not disappointed, hitting at a nice .322 clip with 7 home runs, 25 RBI, 23 runs and even 4 SB. The best part about this line is that he is doing it on the road! I pictured him knocking doubles off the Green Monster, but the truth is right now he is doing most of his damage on the road. Once his home numbers pick up, he will be an unstoppable force. I will go out on a limb and say over the course of the 2009 season, I would rather have Bay on my team than any other fantasy OF.
Power
His power numbers are strong, with only one of his home runs being a “just enough” home run. All of them except one would have left the yard in at least 25 ball parks. Perhaps the best information I can provide to demonstrate Bay’s talent is the pitchers off who he is hitting homers: Speier, Wood, Rivera, Saunders, Guthrie. Considering Rivera has not served up more than 5 home runs in a season since 1995, I would say it is a nice feather in Bay’s hat.
Downside
Bay is typically a hot starter, with April and May being his two best months in terms of OPS over the last three years. However, he is especially hot this year, and I think that will carry over all the way until September.
Prognosis
It is unlikely that you will be able to pry Bay away from another owner right now for anything less than a king’s ransom. Wait until he hits a mini-slump and try to pick him up at a more affordable price.
Russell Martin – C, Dodgers
Martin is a more interesting case than Bay due to position scarcity, and that makes the decision on what to do with him much more difficult. After bragging about Bay, it is time to bring me back down to earth. I saw big things from Martin this year too and he has done nothing but disappoint, hitting .222 with no home runs, 12 RBI and 11 runs. With the lack of quality catchers available, it is not like you can just pick someone up on waivers to fill in until Martin finds his stroke. This is a pressing concern. With Brian McCann’s vision problems slowing him down, Martin is one of the few remaining offensive threats behind the dish.
The Numbers
While I would love to say there is a silver lining in his numbers that point to a breakout, there is not. His K% has skyrocketed to 24.4%, leading to an awful BB/K of 0.59. His ISO of .044 is downright embarrassing and he is hitting a lot more ground balls. His swing percentages are virtually identical to last year, but his contact rate for pitches outside the strike zone is down 13%. This is leading to the high number of strike outs, and is not allowing him to stay alive during at-bats with the possibility of a hit later in the at-bat. Martin is in a big league slump, and we are just going to have to ride it out.
Prognosis
If you are one of the unfortunate managers who has Martin, there are not many appealing options available to you. You could try swapping him for McCann, but really what is the point in that. If you wanted to get Geovany Soto, Joe Mauer or Victor Martinez you would probably have to give up Martin and another quality player, which is not worth it. My advice is to hold onto him and hope he turns it around. I know it is not the most proactive solutions, but sometimes as a fantasy manager you have to be patient.
Do you see Jason Bay as a top 3 outfielder over the remainder of the season? Would you trade him to improve your team in other areas? Do you think Martin will turn it around? What should you do with him if he is killing your team right now?
Set as favorite
Bookmark
Email this
Trackback(0)
Comments (0)
 Write comment
Tags: Slump Jason Bay Russell Martin Justin Speier Mariano Rivera Kerry Wood Joe Saunders Jeremey Guthrie Brian McCann Geovany Soto Joe Mauer Victor Martinez
|
TrackBack URI for this entry
Subscribe to this comment's feed
More articles :