The other day I gave you my position-by-position list of players that I think are particularly undervalued going into 2009.  But while it’s great to know who the guys are that will give you the most added value, some may argue that it’s more important to know the players that will only seem to give you great value.  In that regard, I now present to you my 2009 All-Bust Squad:

C – Jorge Posada:  There’s just something about a 37-year old catcher coming off shoulder surgery that worries me.  I think that something is logic.  It is hard enough for a hitter to come back from shoulder surgery at that age but when you consider the fact that Posada has always been and will continue to be a catcher, you can’t help but wonder if his body can endure that kind of strain.  His solid 2007 season seems very far away now and I can’t see him lasting all season.

1B – Ryan Howard:  This really comes down to a choice of strategy more than anything.  If you like to load up on power then it is hard to go wrong with Howard.  Still, there are other legitimate power guys out there that will help you so much more in other areas that I can’t justify using a late first round/early second round pick on Howard.  People seem to be talking about how they are expecting an improved batting average from him but I find that point hard to justify with any statistical data.

2B – Brandon Phillips:  I did a profile on Phillips at the old BTP blog in which I detailed rather extensively why he will disappoint people in ’09.  Basically, his power appears to be on the decline and his stolen bases will suffer with the absence of Dunn in the lineup behind him.

3B – Aramis Ramirez:  BTP alum and current Hardball Times contributor Paul Singman did a profile on Ramirez last November that deserves a visit if you never checked it out back then.  Two important points the article presented were that Ramirez’s increased fly ball rate could continue to hurt his average if it stays up, and Ramirez was hitting more homers than he should’ve in ’08.  I’m also troubled by his falling ISO – his .229 total last year marks a three-year decline and it was his lowest such rate since joining the Cubs back in ’03.

SS – Derek Jeter:  He’s kind of a cliché bust pick, but it seems like in most drafts he still goes ahead of guys like Peralta, Hardy, and Drew.  Everything with Jeter seems to be on the decline – his run total is on a four-year decline, his home run total on a five-year decline, and he had his lowest stolen base total of his career in 2008.  What’s more is that his peripherals appear to be suffering as well, as he has experienced similar regressions in LD% and HR/FB% while having an increase in swings on pitches outside the zone.  All of these factors lead me to believe that his BA – what most perceive to be his strongest suit – could also take a big hit in 2009.

OF1 – Corey Hart:  Refer to my recent profile of him where I compared him to fellow outfielder, Nate McLouth, for more detailed information.  Basically, any potential that Hart may have is being clouded by his inefficient swing and contact rates.  Because of these factors, he never walks, and he experienced several statistical declines last year.  Unless he can drastically improve his plate discipline, expect some more steps backward from this potentially promising youngster.

OF2 – Pat Burrell:  Another guy I profiled back at the old blog.  One obvious thing going against him is that he’s leaving the hitters paradise in Phildelphia for, well, a dome.  But even without this change, Burrell’s age is starting to catch up to him.  For one thing, he runs like a bolder up a hill.  But his power is also beginning to wane, as he has gone from having substantial power to even the deepest parts of the field to hitting nine-irons to the foul pole in left.  Don’t be surprised to see Burrell have substantial setbacks this year.

OF3 – Shane Victorino:  I think Victorino is a decent enough young player but I think people are significantly overvaluing him right now.  A lot of this probably comes from his stolen base potential but his decline in SB success rate (37 out of 41 in ’07, but only 36 out of 47 in ’08) makes me wonder about his future there.  There is also the question of where Victorino will hit in the Phils’ lineup this year.  Last year he spent a majority of his time in the two-spot which is also where he scored the bulk of his runs.  Towards the end of the season and throughout the postseason, however, he hit sixth.  If he stays there, his run total will obviously suffer.

SP1 – Joe Saunders:  Saunders had somewhat of a surprise breakout season in ’08, but I wouldn’t be betting on the same level of output this year.  His success came not from his ability to prevent people from putting the ball in play (a meager 4.68 K/9 ratio) but, rather, his ability to convert batted balls into outs.  The trouble with this is that such a feat is usually out of the pitcher’s control and is instead left to the hands of his defense and luck.  Saunders did substantially reduce his LD% (15.4% in ’08, 20.7% in ’07), which helped to bring down his BABIP (.267 in ’08, .336 in ’07).  Unfortunately for Saunders, his defense won’t be as good in 2009 as it was in 2008, as the Angels will replace the at-least decent defender Garrett Anderson with the at-least horrible Bobby Abreu and Mark Teixeira with, umm, someone else.  When you consider all this along with the fact that his ERA (3.41) was well below his FIP (4.36) last year, things don’t look great for Saunders.

SP2 – Carlos Zambrano:  Big Z has some devastating stuff and when he is on the top of his game he is practically unhittable.  One major red flag is his decreasing strikeout rates.  Zambrano’s K/9 rates have fallen by at least a whole strikeout over the past two years, which takes away a lot of his fantasy value.  Furthermore, his contact rates allowed went up from 78.8% in ’07 to 82.5% in ’08, which doesn’t bode well for his future K outlook.

SP3 – Gavin Floyd:  As I discussed in my article at the old BTP blog that pitted Floyd against teammate John Danks, the White Sox had two emerging pitchers last year who (although both had solid 2008 stats) are going in completely different directions.  Floyd is the one about to head south.  Floyd appeared to be pretty lucky last year as he posted a BABIP of .268 and an FIP of 4.77 (compared to his 3.84 ERA).  I doubt lightning will strike twice for him.

RP1 – Brad Ziegler:  He seems to be perceived as a hot commodity heading into this year’s drafts but I’m not sold on him yet.  His ERA of 1.06 in 2008 is sure to rise (his FIP was 3.72), although it is hard to say how much.  He did appear to luck out on the highest LOB% for all relievers last year (92.3%!), and his career-high walk rate (3.32 per 9) could also be a sign of worry.  His submarine-style delivery led to an astounding amount of grounders (64.7% of batted balls were grounders), but this could also change if batters start to figure out how to pick up his delivery better.  Overall, he’s a promising youngster that seems doomed to fall short of expectations.

RP2 – Ryan Franklin:  The presumptive favorite to get the Cards’ closer spot for 2009, Franklin is going to have a lot of perceived value with his potential save total.  The main problem with this is that it is not very likely that he will hold this position for the whole year, let alone much of it.  He just doesn’t fit the bill of a closer that well – his K/BB ratio is pedestrian at best (1.70 in ’08), and he has a knack for giving up the long ball.  His fly ball rate in 2008 was 37.9%, and he had a home run/fly ball rate of 10.4%.  Walks and homers will kill a closer more than anything, so these trends do not appear to be working in Franklin’s favor.

RP3 – Francisco Rodriguez:  As Hong-Chih Kuo (one of my reliever sleepers) was the subject of my brother’s third installment of closers from 2008 over at our 3-d Baseball site, K-Rod was that of his first article in that series.  Unfortunately for K-Rod, the first two parts focused on closers with distorted values (the second installment covered Lidge, for your reference).  K-Rod’s inflated stats have been greatly discussed in many forums before this, but I’ll at least reiterate that he experienced substantial declines in many areas last year (other than saves and save opp’s), especially with strikeout rates and FIP.

What are your thoughts?  Do you feel like any of these players have legitimate value in 2009?  Are there any other players you are intentionally avoiding for this year’s draft?

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written by big o, March 25, 2009

wish someone would list morganna in one of these type articles .
www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8ugQlsuzB8

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written by kevinorris, March 24, 2009

I think A-Ram is easily comparable to Longoria, and goes a round or two later.

As for Jeter, I agree- You will never see me draft him.

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written by GabrielLundeen, March 24, 2009

My #1 bust for 2009: Josh Hamilton. Definitely not a first rounder, and seems primed to disappoint anyone who thinks he's the next Hack Wilson. He needs to do it over a whole season before I'm buying it.

Nice list, though, even if I don't agree on Jeter or K-Rod.

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A-Ram
written by MichaelMuschiano, March 23, 2009

5-year splits:
32 HR/105 RBI

The guy will only turn 31 this year. Why do a lot of people (not just you) think he is going to be a bust year in and year out? I vividly remember writers recommending to stay away from him last year too and he went on to hit .289/27 HR/111 RBI.

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written by Doug, March 23, 2009

Jorge Posada...you chose to write this right around the time Jorge throws out 3 of 4 players. He has been hitting well and he will perform well. He might not play every game but, Posada's potential outweighs your concern. No bust here in my opinion.

As for Jeter being a bust, that is not a stretch. He has turned into a better baseball player over and above a fantasy one years ago.

Brandon Phillips has been picked as a bust ever since his trade, and he has proved all the naysayers wrong. He might not duplicate his stats of the past two years but, he will still be beyond simply servicable.

Ryan Howard has also been on many bust lists and I hope his 35+ HR's will quite down those voices. I would put Alfonso Soriano on the bust list before Howard in a heartbeat.

K-Rod will be a bust depending on what stats you set in comparison. If you want the high K rate of a few years ago, then BUST! If you want a solid closer who will give you 25+ saves in a season then BOOM!

DRAFTAHOLIC!!!

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