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C) Joe Mauer, Twins - When it was announced that Mauer was struggling with a back injury and would miss a few weeks of the year, I wrote him off; after all, Mauer had always seemed overpriced for someone who rarely reached 10 HR in a season and only ever really excelled in average. I figured, at best, he’d come back and be the Joe Mauer we know and love, with good totals across the board but nothing spectacular in any sense of the word. At worst, pre-season injury reports indicated that the back problems could linger and affect Joe’s swing. Boy, was I wrong: Joe Mauer has blasted 13 HR so far and posted a ridiculous .509 wOBA, while slugging .748 with a .408 batting average. With a .416 BABIP and an unspectacular 20.8% LD%, however, expect the average to come back to earth. The power should also regress - Mauer’s herculean 29.5% HR/FB% and .340 ISO are astronomically higher than his career averages and would put even Ryan Howard (career ISO .311, 33.1% HR/FB%) to the test. Clearly, his injury issues are in the past, but even when his numbers fall back to earth he will be a top 5 catcher as he’s been for the past few years.
1B) Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks - It’s not the power - Reynolds has always been a slugger capable of hitting 30+ round-trippers in a year - it’s the average and the speed that make Reynolds such a bizarre breakout player so far this year. His ridiculous K% of 38.8% is as high as ever and should be killing Reynolds average, but with an unsustainable .382 BABIP and a pitiful 15.2 LD%, it’s clear that Reynolds has been wearing a four-leaf clover inside his socks. The power is legit, and 35 homers isn’t out of the question, but expect the average to trend back towards the .250 range that he’s lived in for his first two seasons. As for the 13 SB, it’s hard to say if we can expect another 10-15 swipes before the season’s end. Anything is possible.
2B) Ben Zobrist, Rays - With injuries to Aki Iwamura and Jason Bartlett, Zobrist has seen significant starting time between the middle infield and the outfield for the Rays and is making a case for regular playing time with a .315/.428/.679 line and impressive power and speed (13 HR, 8 SB). To be fair, Zobrist has never seen 200 Major League ABs in a season, so it’s hard to say if this is a breakout, hot streak, or something in between, but with an impressive 16.5 BB% and .364 ISO, he’s at least shown us that he sees the ball well and can crush it when he makes contact. With a near-career-average 18.8 LD% and a .330 BABIP, his average may not be sustainable, but 25/20 with a .280 average is not out of the question, even if his high 24.5 HR/FB% comes down towards the 17.7 mark he put up last year. He’s putting up Pedroia-esque numbers and could still be on the waiver wire, so talk up his hot start and see if you can get his owner to sell high, because Zobrist should continue to be a top 10 option at 2B and SS for the rest of the year.
SS) Jimmy Rollins, Phillies - I didn’t say they were all going to be pleasant surprises. If you drafted Rollins in the top 10, chances are you’re unhappy with his .211 average and paltry 4 HR/10 SB totals so far from the 2007 MVP. As an embittered and pessimistic Phillies fan, I’ve heard plenty of talk about how Rollins is “done,” but it’s hard for me to believe that Rollins won’t pick things up as we go into the All-Star Break and beyond. He’s clearly pressing at the plate, as his walk rate is down, and he’s hitting fewer line drives while seeing his BABIP, HR/FB, OBP, SLG, SB% all drop precipitously. Two numbers scare me in particular: after getting caught stealing only 3 times all of last year, Rollins has already been tagged out 4 times in this young season; and worse, his walk rate is down nearly 5% from last year, the result of swinging more and making contact with fewer balls. At this point, Rollins’s slump is as mental as it is physical or mechanical, so rolling the dice and buying low on J-Ro might still be a risky proposition given the price you’ll likely have to pay to acquire him. Still, with a .229 BABIP and a decent Contact Rate (up 2% on his career average at 88.9%), it’s hard to imagine Rollins not turning things around at least to last year’s post-injury levels.
3B) Garrett Atkins, Rockies - Another disappointment, Atkins continues his three-year slide from stardom and fantasy relevance as his average sits beneath the Mendoza line at a putrid .193 and his slugging percentage is a weak .302 for a devastating .575 OPS. Atkins’s batted-ball numbers show the culprit for his current struggles are a high ground-ball rate (44.6%) and a low LD% (13.3% - ouch). With a .201 BABIP and near-career average K% and BB%, bad luck has definitely been a factor in Atkins’s struggles, but it’s hard to imagine that he’ll hit much better than .250 or slug over his career average of .462, so more than 20 homers is probably too high of an expectation, even for someone who plays half their games in Coors Field. If you’re hurting for a CI and Atkins is on the wire, it might be worth stashing him on the bench until he starts hitting again, but don’t be surprised if he rides the pine a lot and loses playing time to Ian Stewart and Clint Barmes until he turns things around, but don’t expect the Atkins of 2006, or even the Atkins of 2007.
MI) Rafael Furcal, Dodgers - Bad things come in threes, so Furcal fits this spot perfectly with a .247 average, 2 HR, and only 4 SB in 7 attempts. After a torrid start to last season before injuring his back, Furcal was a hot bounce-back candidate during drafts this offseason. So far, he’s done nothing to reward his supporters with a lower walk rate and higher K rate and a Juan Pierre-esque .078 ISO. His power stats and his contact rates are down across the board, and his .289 BABIP indicates that his luck isn’t the primary culprit for his failures so far this year. Perhaps the .380 BABIP he posted during his shortened season last year got our hopes up a little too high - it seems like a 10HR/20SB season could be the ceiling for the Dodger vet this year, so don’t hesitate to sell low and let someone else deal with him.
CI) Nick Johnson, Nationals - 82.43: That’s how many games Nick Johnson has averaged per year since his first full season in the Majors in ’02. After missing all of 2007 and playing only 38 games in 2008, did anyone expect Nick Johnson to last this long without hitting the DL with a broken fingernail or a strained big toe? Johnson has posted a ridiculous 28.8 LD% through 59 games this season, leading to a .371 BABIP and a strong .313/.417/.438 slash line. We all know that Johnson is a strong hitter, and the Nationals’ lineup hasn’t been that awful, so if he can stay healthy (a big if) he could easily put up decent counting totals reminiscent of his ’05 and ’06 seasons. Do I expect 25 HR and a .300 average by the end of the year? Not in the slightest, but so far, Johnson has been more than serviceable as a CI and could put up 15 or even 20 dingers. Expect the average to come down with the BABIP, but if he can keep up even a 23-24 LD%, he could keep the average around .300 and continue to hit doubles
OF) Adam Jones, Orioles - One of my preseason favorites, Jones has been a pleasant surprise for Orioles fans and fantasy owners alike. Already having knocked in 12 HR and 41 RBI, the second-year CF is part of the holy trinity of players received in the ridiculously lopsided trade for Erik Bedard that also sent over closer George Sherrill and über-prospect Chris Tillman. Scouts have raved about this kid for years for his athleticism, and many projected him to be a 20/20 threat in the bigs. The 20 HR seems inevitable barring injury, but a total of 5 SB in 7 attempts seems like a bit of a letdown so far. The .324 average won’t last, as his .380 BABIP is well above Jones’s career average as well as the league’s typical rate of .300, but it’s hard not to be impressed by the .240 ISO and the hustle he’s shown getting on base so often despite his high GB% of 50.0%. I like his chances to hit about .295 and reach 25 HR, even if his BABIP and HR/FB% regress.
OF) Adam Lind, Blue Jays - Well, well, well: after two years of bouncing back and forth between the Majors and AAA, this perennial AAAA slugger has finally stuck with the big league team and is absolutely mashing right now with a .302/.369/.543 line. Lind has always had decent pop and a consistent ability to put the ball in play, but, like Jones, has benefitted from a high BABIP and is striking out too often to keep up his current success. Still, it’s hard not to be impressed by his .391 wOBA, and 20 to 25 HR is not out of the question this year given that he’s already hit 12 and, at the tender age of 26, can continue to develop his power (albeit at a slower pace than his currently inflated .239 ISO would indicate). Definitely worth a roster spot in all leagues, as he’s more polished than since-demoted teammate Travis Snider and has a strong track record between AAA and the Majors over the past 3 years.
OF) Bobby Abreu, Angels - I’m not surprised that he’s playing well in his new digs in Anaheim, but more by the fact that he’s having such success running for Mike Scioscia despite his advanced age. With 15 SB in 16 attempts, Abreu has paid off in dividends for his owners by keeping up a solid average with good R and RBI totals. He’s running more than he has since his trade from the Phillies back in 2006, and as long as he keeps up his current pace, 25 or 30 SB is reasonable to expect from Abreu. He’s striking out less than ever, walking more, and yet his HR/FB% is nearly 10% below his career average. I expect to see him find his power stroke during the second half and post up at least 10-15 more homers to go along with the steals as the season continues; Abreu is just too good of a hitter to keep up his 3.6% HR/FB rate.
SP) Ricky Nolasco, Marlins - He may be walking 1 BB/9 more than last year, but with an abhorrent 54.7% strand rate and a difference of over 3 ½ runs between his ERA and FIP, Nolasco has been surprisingly unlucky so far this season. Scouting reports indicate that he was throwing to many sliders and hanging them over the plate, allowing batters to ride him to a tune of a 24.7 LD%, but since being demoted to AAA Nolasco seems to have found his stuff again as he struck out 9 in his latest appearance while allowing only 2 ER. His K rate is right where it was last year at 7.94 K/9, but the .399 BABIP against is just killing Nolasco. If you can still buy low, do so now, because there’s no reason that Nolasco can’t keep his ERA in the mid 3’s or low 4’s for the rest of the year while racking up a high K total. Just be wary - he throws a lot of breaking balls and could be an injury risk.
RP) Heath Bell, Padres - Well, I shouldn’t necessarily call him a surprise, since he’s been one of the premier set-up men in the league for some time now, but Bell’s quick taking to the closer role in San Diago and strong peripherals have made him one of the elite closers in baseball so far this year. Bell has always limited his walks and struck out a high percentage of batters, so there’s no reason to suspect that he won’t see continued success. The only number that seems out of line is his high strand rate of 84.6%, as everything else is in line with his career numbers and his FIP is a strong 1.75 to back up his 1.37 ERA.
All stats from Fangraphs.com Who has the best First-Half All-Surprise Team? Currently no polls available to vote Trackback(0)
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Tags: Joe Mauer Mark Reynolds Ben Zobrist Jimmy Rollins Garrett Atkins Rafael Furcal Nick Johnson Adam Jones Adam Lind Bobby Abreu Ricky Nolasco Heath Bell
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