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11 Jan 2010 |
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| As we attempt to regain our composure after learning the BBWAA includes members who believe such baseball luminaries as David Segui, Eric Karros and Kevin Appier deserve to be presented with baseballs’ ultimate accolade, it is time once again to turn our attention to the upcoming fantasy baseball season. “Guns and Butter” is joining you in the quest to unearth the prime players to target for fantasy baseball value in 2010. We turn our attention this week to the American League Central.
Minnesota Twins
An amazing run in September, culminating in a one-game playoff win over Detroit thrust the Twins back into the playoffs after a two year hiatus. Minnesota couldn’t repeat the magic against the might of the Yankees in the ALDS, but providing Mauer, Morneau and Nathan stay healthy we should see another good run for the Twins in 2010.
Key additions: J.J. Hardy, Clay Condrey
Key Losses: Carlos Gomez, Boof Bonser, Brian Buscher
Gun: J.J. Hardy
After showing great promise in 2007 and 2008, Hardy’s bat went M.I.A in 2009. A change of scenery may be just what he needs to once again become a very solid player on both sides of the ball. His BABIP did drop to 0.264 in 2009 (his lifetime average is admittedly a low 0.280), however anyone that can hit 24 and 26 home runs in consecutive seasons while maintaining a solid batting average (0.277 and 0.283 respectively) has a lot to offer at the shortstop position. Expect great value from Hardy in 2010.
Butter: Joe Mauer
Mauer will of course be a wonderful fantasy player in 2010. The problem is that he was so good and tasty in 2009, you will not draft him at any value this season. Early mock and expert drafts have seen Mauer consistently being picked in the first round. Consider Joe’s HR/FB rate over the past three seasons – 7.2% in 2007, 6.5% in 2008 and 20.4% in 2009. The massive jump in home runs per fly balls in 2009 will regress, so let someone else overpay for the big man in 2010.
Detroit Tigers:
A heartbreaking end to a great run in 2009 could signify the shape of things to come in Detroit. Lead-off power plant and fan-favorite Curtis Granderson is gone, Magglio Ordonez has lost his pop and chippy Placido Polanco has taken his glove to third base in Philly. The bullpen will also have a new look with Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney moving on to make way for the guitar hero himself, Joel Zumaya (health permitting) and young fireballer Ryan Perry.
Key additions: Max Scherzer, Phil Coke, Austin Jackson
Key Losses: Curtis Granderson, Edwin Jackson, Placido Polanco, Fernando Rodney, Brandon Lyon
Gun: Scott Sizemore
With Polanco moving on, Sizemore should get his shot to man second base for the Tigers.
Sizemore has hit over .300 through AA and AAA and shown a little pop. If he does get the starting gig coming out of Spring Training, you will be pleasantly surprised with around 15 home runs, 15 steals and a .270+ batting average.
Keep an eye on him early as he suffered a fractured tibia while playing in the AFL in October. Reports out of Detroit suggest he will be ready to go when the spring bell rings.
Butter: Carlos Guillen
A one-time value player, Carlos seems to be falling apart as his years advance. He has averaged only 400 at-bats over the last two years, and while he has the pedigree to hit the long-ball, his once handy speed is also in decline. Now outfield eligible only, take a look at Guillen only if he drops way down the draft board.
Chicago White Sox:
A poor showing in 2009 has prompted the White Sox to add a bit of everything in the off-season. The versatile Mark Teahen has joined speedy Juan Pierre, ex-stud closer J.J. Putz and journeyman lollygagger and long-ball proponent Andruw Jones in Chicago. Whether it is enough to bridge the gap to the Twins remains the biggest question in the AL Central in 2010.
Key additions: J.J. Putz, Juan Pierre, Mark Teahen, Andruw Jones
Key Losses: Scott Podsednik, Chris Getz, Josh Fields
Gun: Juan Pierre
Relegated to part-time duty under Joe Torre in Los Angeles, Pierre now has the chance to be a full-time player once again with the White Sox. If steals and average are attractive to your team, Pierre is your man. While you probably won’t get the 64 steals he racked up in 2007, a return to 50 is not out of the question. If others in your league are sleeping on Pierre’s numbers from the last couple of seasons, you have a great chance to snap up big value with those steals and a .290+ batting average. Who knows, he might even hit you a home run.
Butter: Bobby Jenks
Butter and Bobby just seem to go together. Rumblings out of Chicago about his conditioning would seem to suggest Jenks is on a short leash with club management. While his numbers weren’t terrible in 2009 and showed a bounce-back in his strikeout rate (from 5.6 K/9 in 2008 to 8.3 K/9 in 2009), his walk rate was also up. Add in the fact that he gave up nine home runs (up from three in 2008), there is cause for concern. With the newly signed J.J Putz in town, beware of paying too much for Jenks in 2010.
Cleveland Indians:
After a dismal 65-win season in 2009 that also saw staff ace Cliff Lee traded, things haven’t improved for the Indians leading into 2010. Maybe LeBron will pull a Michael Jordan and pick up a bat, but failing that scenario it is going to be a long, tough year in Cleveland.
Key additions: Brian Buscher, Austin Kearns
Key Losses: Kelly Shoppach
Gun: Michael Brantley
Brantley is a great “speed” pick late in the draft. He knows how to get on base and when he does, he loves to run. In Triple-A he stole 46 bases in 51 attempts. In a short stint with the big club last season he managed an on-base percentage of 0.358. All indications are that Brantley has the inside running on a starting job with LaPorta being moved to First Base. With a starting job, Brantley could net you 30 steals with a .270+ average.
Butter: Kerry Wood
It pains me to write this, because I love Kerry Wood. I love the way he competes, I love the way he has fought back from numerous injuries, and I love watching the game in 1998 when Wood struck out 20 hitters - it still gives me goose bumps. The problem is that Wood has a lot going against him right now. Cleveland isn’t very good, Wood’s contract is prohibitive (10 million dollars in 2010) making a trade difficult, and he is a health risk as always.
Wood’s strikeout rate remained solid (10.3 K/9) in 2009, however his walk rate rose to 4.58 BB/9 from an impressive 2.44 BB/9 in 2008. The clincher is that Wood’s contract is structured in such a way that he activates a 2011 club option ($11 million) if he finishes 55 games in 2010. On the off chance that Wood nears that number, do you think the Indians will let him reach it?  Kansas City Royals:
The Royals had a ripping start to 2009 but Zack Greinke’s heroics alone could not carry the team for the entire season. An offense that tallied the least runs in the division and was next to last in home runs sentenced the club to yet another disappointing finish. Big seasons from the improving Billy Butler, the perennially promising and ultimately disappointing Alex Gordon and incoming Josh Fields will be required if the Royals are to make any significant noise in 2010.
Key additions: Scott Podsednik, Chris Getz, Josh Fields
Key Losses: John Buck, Mike Jacobs
Gun: Billy Butler
A former top hitting prospect, Butler turned it on in the second half of 2009. The numbers for that second half were a .314 batting average, 14 home runs and 55 RBI in 287 at bats. Hitting in the middle of the Royals lineup - hopefully with a healthy Jose Guillen and Alex Gordon -he will be in position to once again drive in plenty of runs. In 2009 he spent 503 at bats in the number three hole, where he hit .306 with 19 HR and 81 RBI. Drafting Billy after the top First Baseman are off the board could reward you with a fine return – this Butler could serve up 30 home runs to his fantasy owner.
Butter: Scott Podsednik
Podsednik had a nice run in 2009, hitting .304 and stealing 30 bases. The move to Kansas City probably means he will lead-off and play a less-than-average centerfield. When you are enticed by Podsednik’s name on draft day, remember that before 2009 his last full season was in 2006. He will be 34 years old on opening day, and while he does get some stolen bases, he really isn’t a great base stealer.
Finally, his wife is a former playboy playmate, and very tidy indeed. What incentive does this guy have to even leave the house? Chances are, somebody will overpay for Podsednik’s 2009. Don’t let it be you.
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Until next week, when we take a look at the AL East, Boris is OUT!
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Comments (4)
  written by BorisFromDownunder, February 03, 2010
Thanks for the input MDS - which of the numbers do you think are a stretch for Sizemore? He showed more power in '09 than ever, has good wheels and has consistently hit .300 in the minors. Playing time is the only question mark, and with Polanco gone he should get a shot. I admit he isn't Grady Sizemore, but he isn't Tom either. I don't think 15/15 at .270 is a stretch. Thanks for reading though mate.
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Tags: J.J. Hardy Clay Condrey Carlos Gomez Boof Bonser Brian Buscher Joe Mauer Max Scherzer Phil Coke Austin Jackson Curtis Granderson Edwin Jackson Placido Polanco Fernando Rodney Brandon Lyon Scott Sizemore Carlos Guillen J.J. Putz Juan Pierre Mark Teahen Andruw Jones Scott Podsednik Chris Getz Josh Fields Bobby Jenks Brian Buscher Austin Kearns Kelly Shoppach Michael Brantley Kerry Wood Scott Podsednik Chris Getz Josh Fields John Buck Mike Jacobs Billy Butler
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