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18 Jan 2010 |
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| Guns and Butter – American League East Edition
After a week full of shock revelations that included Mark McGwire admitting to using steroids, Courtney Love apparently being a nutcase and Jessica Alba claiming she has “saggy boobs” (surely not?!), let’s change the pace and talk some sleepers and busts for the upcoming season. This week we are previewing the American League East. Coming off a 27th team championship in 2009, can any team in the East derail the Yankee juggernaut in 2010?
Boston Red Sox:
The Red Sox had a shocking end to 2009 being swept by the Angels in their Division Series. Theo Epstein has responded by making significant change to the playing roster for 2010. John Lackey comes across from the conquering Angels to bolster a rotation headlined by Josh Beckett and the up and coming Jon Lester. Adrian Beltre comes in for Mike Lowell to bolster the defense in a big way, while Jason Bay has left town to take his chances and a boatload of cash with the New York Mets.
Expect playoff baseball again in Boston this year.
Key additions: John Lackey, Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro, Mike Cameron, Bill Hall
Key Losses: Jason Bay, Casey Kotchman, Billy Wagner, Takashi Saito
Gun: Clay Buchholz
While there is some concern over a drop in strikeout rate for Buchholz in 2009 (6.6K/9 down from 8.8K/9 in 2008), there is good news in an improved walk rate and an increase in velocity for the third year in a row. His groundball rate also increased in 2009 and he goes into 2010 with the stability of having a roster spot locked up, both positive signs. Add in the fact that he was a top pitching prospect who has a no-hitter to his name, and you have a good recipe for success in 2010.
Butter: David Ortiz
“Big Papi” is a big concern. In 2009 he struck out at an unprecedented rate of 24.8%, well above his career mark of 21.4% and his worst since being a regular starter. His home run per fly ball rate dropped to 13.4%. This is in line with a steady decline since 2006 when he left the yard on 26.1% of his fly-balls. He can only be used in your utility/DH spot as he no longer has the luxury of First Base eligibility. He is also 34 years old.
Whilst Ortiz can be still be useful for a fantasy team short on power, there are more red flags here than you see at a Japanese tour group convention.
Baltimore Orioles:
Cellar dwellers for the past two seasons, the Orioles are starting to piece together a ball-club with a bright future. The offense has Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters to build around, while a slew of young arms including Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Brad Bergesen form a future of promise.
Key additions: Kevin Millwood, Mike Gonzalez, Garrett Atkins
Key Losses: Chris Ray, Danys Baez
Gun: Nolan Reimold
While the world was watching every move made by potential catching stud Matt Wieters, Reimold hit 24 home runs between AAA and Baltimore before being shut down for the season. Reimold will more than likely be the starting left fielder heading in to the season, and could be a good source of power for your team. In 2009 he hit in the fifth spot in the batting order and with Adam Jones, Markakis, Brian Roberts and Wieters around, Reimold should get plenty of RBI chances. Draft Reimold in the mid to late rounds and you could be pleasantly surprised with 25 home runs and a solid .280 average.
Butter: Adam Jones
Adam Jones is developing into a talented player. The problem is that he has been talked up so much, he will be more than likely be gone in your fantasy draft before his value warrants it. Don’t expect an increase in home runs for Jones in 2010 - his groundball rate in 2009 was 55.4 % - higher than Christian Guzman, Nyjer Morgan and Emilio Bonafacio. Instead of risking your investment on Jones, look to guys like Andre Ethier or the always under-appreciated Bobby Abreu.
New York Yankees:
As my fellow countrymen Midnight Oil once sang, “The rich get richer, the poor get the picture…..” and that is how the New York Yankees roll. Appropriately named Yankees’ General Manager Brian Cashman decided he didn’t like the price tag on ageing spark plug Johnny Damon, so he went out and traded for fan favourite Curtis Granderson. Not satisfied with that, he nabbed underappreciated strike-out machine Javier Vasquez to join “CC” and “AJ” in a now very strong Yankees rotation. They might not have it all their own way in 2010, but they will be there when it counts.
Key additions: Curtis Granderson, Javier Vasquez, Nick Johnson
Key Losses: Hideki Matsui, Melky Cabrera, Ian Kennedy
Gun: Nick Johnson
Johnson has had more injuries than Wile E. Coyote, so of course there is some risk in having him on your team. Fortune favours the brave in fantasy baseball, so if you are feeling brave, consider this - “Nick the Stick” had an On Base Percentage of .426 in 2009. Here’s a list of the players with a higher OBP in 2009 – Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer. That’s it. The last time Johnson had an OBP of les than .400 was in 2004.
Johnson only hit eight home runs in 2009; however six were to right field. New Yankee stadium should help things along in that regard, and Johnson did hit 23 home runs back in 2006. Expect around 15 home runs and a .290 batting average this season, definitely worth a gamble late in your draft.
Butter: Jorge Posada
I must admit to believing Posada would be a bust in 2009, which turned out to be way off the mark. Here I go again. Posada is 38 years old. He struck out at a rate of 26.4% last season (his highest since 2002), his HR/FB ratio was his highest since 2004 and he posted his highest fly ball rate since 2002. Even though Yankee Stadium is a good place for home runs, don’t expect Posada to repeat anywhere near his 2009 season. Currently his ADP shows that he is being taken as the 5th catcher after Matt Wieters. At that price, stay well away.
 Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays had a tough time of it in 2009 and were not able to repeat the magic of their 2008 playoff run. Wonderful seasons from Carl Crawford and Ben Zobrist were overshadowed by another frustrating year for B.J. Upton.
The starting pitching is strong and has further upside with young guns Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson waiting in the wings, and the addition of Rafael Soriano will bolster an already strong bullpen. Playoff baseball in 2010 is a real possibility for the Tampa Bay Rays once again.
Key additions: Rafael Soriano, Kelly Shoppach, Dan Johnson
Key Losses: Akinori Iwamura, Greg Zaun
Gun: Desmond Jennings
A complete speed and power package is what you get with Jennings. After suffering a shoulder injury in 2007, Jennings comeback has been swift and impressive. In 110 games in Double-A he hit eight home runs, stole 37 bases and hit .316. A promotion to Triple-A saw him steal 15 bases in only 32 games, maintaining a .325 batting average. Defensively he has good range and an average arm.
A solid spring could see him make the Rays’ starting line-up – if he does, he will join Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton in one of the most athletic and exciting outfields in baseball.
Butter: Jason Bartlett
In 2008 Jason Bartlett hit one home run. In 2009 he hit 14. His BABIP was .368, well up from his lifetime average of .330. At 30 years of age, I am not quite sure what to make of his new found power, though I would not expect any where near the 14 home runs again in 2010.
Draft him for his steals, but expect the home runs to regress to around 6-8.
Toronto Blue Jays:
The Blue Jays have some interesting young talent (Travis Snider, Adam Lind, Brett Wallace, Marc Rzepczynski and Ricky Romero) at their disposal; however the loss of stud Roy Halladay means a long hard road ahead for 2010 and beyond.
Key additions: Brandon Morrow, John Buck, Alex Gonzalez
Key Losses: Roy Halladay, Marco Scutaro, Brandon League
Gun: Marc Rzepczynski
Rzepczynski has posted excellent strikeout numbers through all of his minor league stops. He continued that with an 8.8 K/9 rate in the majors in 2009, the only downside being that control problems are holding back somewhat, as he posted a 4.4 BB/9 walk rate in 2009.
It has been said that Rzepczynski could be better than Brandon Webb as he throws harder and actually gets more groundballs – 51% in 2009 to go along with a 60% GB rate in the minors. The ceiling here is very high, and the floor is such that the strikeouts alone can help your fantasy team even if his control does not improve markedly. Rzepczynski is a solid late pitching selection in your draft.
Butter: Lyle Overbay
It appears the use-by date of Lyle Overbay is fast approaching. Since a career year in 2006 (22 home runs and a .312 average), his batting average and power have been on the decline. Add in the facts that he underwent sports hernia surgery in the off-season, he has competition from young prospect Brett Wallace and potential DH Randy Ruiz, and it looks like at-bats may be harder to come by for Overbay in 2010.
Do you want the best fantasy baseball insights, projections, rankings, exclusive podcasts and the opportunity to talk to fantasy baseball experts “live”? Then stop reading this and get your butt over to the side – The Fantasy Pros 911 Premium Baseball side that is. Follow the link below to the most informative and up to date fantasy baseball site this side of Mark McGwire’s massive pectorals!
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Until next week, when we take a look at the NL West, Boris is OUT!
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Tags: Mark McGwire John Lackey Jon Lester Adrian Beltre Mike Lowell Jason Bay Marco Scutaro Mike Cameron Bill Hall Casey Kotchman Billy Wagner Takashi Saito Clay Buchholz Kevin Millwood Mike Gonzalez Garrett Atkins Chris Ray Danys Baez Nolan Reimold Curtis Granderson Javier Vasquez Nick Johnson Hideki Matsui Melky Cabrera Ian Kennedy Rafael Soriano Kelly Shoppach Dan Johnson Akinori Iwamura Greg Zaun Desmond Jennings Brandon Morrow John Buck Alex Gonzalez Roy Halladay Marco Scutaro Brandon League Marc Rzepczynski Lyle Overbay sleeper bust
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