A horror-filled 2009 has given way to some interesting off-season moves for the Diamondbacks - none more talked about than the three-way trade that saw young guns Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth sent to Detroit, to be replaced by starters Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy.

Adding Adam LaRoche and Kelly Johnson potentially gives the offense a boost, but the real story here is whether Brandon Webb can come back strong after shoulder surgery in 2009.

Key additions: Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, Adam LaRoche, Kelly Johnson

Key Losses: Max Scherzer, Yusmeiro Petit, Daniel Schlereth

Johnson’s horrible 2009 should make him a nice bargain in 2010. On the surface his .224 batting average looks scary, but considering his BABIP was a lowly .249 (his lifetime BABIP is .313), he is a prime rebound candidate in his new digs. Other peripherals such as an improved walk rate and contact rate in 2009 support the argument that Kelly-J should be on his way in 2010.

Reynolds had an amazing 2009. He launched 44 home runs and had 24 steals to go with 102 RBI. Those are big numbers, tempered somewhat by a .260 batting average. Of course we would all like those numbers on our fantasy team, and therein lies the problem. Reynolds will go off draft boards like cup cakes off Carlos Silva’s lunch tray. I checked the results of some recent NFBC drafts – in 5 drafts (5 x 5 roto) Reynolds was taken at the following picks:

29, 20, 20, 28, 29. If Reynolds regresses to around 35 home runs and a .250 batting average with 15 steals (not unlikely given his love of the strikeout), you will be overpaying.

A lightning finish to 2009 under Jim Tracy saw the Rockies come close to repeating their pennant win in 2007. With young guns Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler lining up with “K” kings Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge de la Rosa, there may be another run left in Colorado for 2010

With some parallels to the previously mentioned Mark Reynolds, Stewart could pay big dividends as a mid-late third base option in 2010. Like Reynolds, Stewart has trouble with the strike out. Like Reynolds, Stewart can leave the yard. He managed 25 home runs in 2009 in only 425 at bats so there is some upside there if he can keep the third base gig all season. Stewart can also steal a base, so don’t be surprised if he manages around 10-12 steals to go with 30 home runs. The downside is that he more than likely ends up with a .250 average, but with a slice of luck he could bring that up to around .260. Some pretty handy numbers for a player that still qualifies at second base.

Barmes is high risk in 2010. He is a fly ball machine who does not hit for average. He hit 23 home runs in 2009 after a previous season high of 11. His HR/FB rate in 2009 was 11%, well over his lifetime average of 7.1%. Add in the fact that Eric Young Jr. - who has a faster set of wheels than Jenson Button (ed. note--car racing)- is next in line for Barmes’ job, and you want nothing to do with Clint in 2010.

 

After a solid 2009, the Dodgers have so far been sitting on their hands in the off-season. Randy Wolf and Juan Pierre have new addresses and the only addition seen at Chavez Ravine is utility infielder Jamey Carroll.

The Dodgers have solid pitching (3.41 ERA in 2009) with upside in Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, plus an offense containing young guns Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier with the always entertaining Manny Ramirez on board to launch plenty of long balls and misplay plenty of groundballs.

Unless any big moves are made before the 2010 season gets underway, the Dodgers will have some stiff competition for the pennant in 2010.

Key additions: Jamey Carroll

Key Losses: Randy Wolf, Juan Pierre

Lost in the hype of outfield stable mate Matt Kemp, Ethier is a solid option with some upside to come. He maintained solid peripherals in 2009 with increased power numbers due to a career high fly ball rate. His batting average (.194) against left-handers looks terrible, but considering his BABIP against lefties was .215, you can expect improvement there. Expect close to 30HR with 100RBI and a .285 batting average. 

Butter: Clayton Kershaw

Kershaw could be very good in 2010; however his current price (being drafted before A.J. Burnett, John Lackey and Chad Billingsley) makes him a very risky proposition. He did pitch with some luck in 2009 with a BABIP of .274, so expect some regression in 2010. His biggest enemy is his control (4.8BB/9 in 2009) - until he can harness that you will overpay for his filthy fastball and ultra-nasty curve.

A tough 2009 will more than likely be repeated in 2010, but things are not all bad for General Manager Jed Hoyer. The Padres have some young talent on board with speedy Everth Cabrera, power hitters Chase Headley and Kyle Blanks plus young fireballer Mat Latos just to name a few. Expect moreyoung talent to be addedas potential trading chips Heath Bell and Adrian Gonzalez find their way onto other teams in 2010.

Looking for some steals from your MI spot late in the draft? If so, Everth is your boy. He won’t give you any power, but if he can keep the shortstop gig all year long he might just get you 40 steals. He knows how to take a walk, and while his batting average might not see north of .260, Everth will not hurt you too much in average while plying your team with the speed you need.

Bell is a very good pitcher, but I had to find some butter on a Padres’ team that doesn’t really offer any bad value – realistically, how many of these guys will be over drafted? Bell gets the butter as there is a genuine chance for him to be traded, increasing the odds of him ending up in a set up role. If that happens, you lose a great deal of his value as it is tied up in saves.

The Giants are primed to make some noise in the NL West in 2010. With ace Tim Lincecum and a solid supporting staff, the pitching should be good enough to compete. The addition of Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff adds some much needed power to the line-up, and with Pablo “Biscuits” Sandoval looking like the real deal, the Giants may just have enough to take the pennant in 2010.

Key additions: Mark DeRosa, Aubrey Huff, Juan Uribe 

Key Losses: Brad Penny

Sanchez has control problems. His walk rate was a massive 4.85 BB/9 in 2009, and he has consistently been pretty poor in this area. The good news is, he can miss bats – and lots of them. Sanchez whiffed 177 hitters this past year, to the tune of 9.75 K/9. His contact rate was a minuscule 73.8 percent. Among starters with 140+IP, only Rich Harden and Javier Vasquez were better at avoiding bats in 2009. It is probably unreasonable to suggest that Sanchez will improve his walk rate markedly in 2010, however the strikeouts are a given, the Giants have improved, and you might just find yourself with a late pick starter who helps you win a fantasy title.

I saw Matt Cain mentioned as “potential Cy Young winner Matt Cain” a few days ago. I wouldn’t be putting my money down on this happening in 2010. Consider that his 2009 ERA of 2.89 was fuelled somewhat by a BABIP of .268, and that his strikeouts dropped from 7.69 K/9 in 2008 to 7.07 K/9 in 2009. Cain is currently being drafted ahead of Josh Beckett, Yovani Gallardo and Cole Hamels. I would take all three ahead of him.

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