Today at FP911 I read Mike Podhorzer and Patrick DiCaprio’s predictions for 2009. These are interesting articles and I wanted to get in on the fun, too. So, here are my picks which go against the grain. Many of these I have already said on The Fantasy Face Off, so if you like these picks, make sure to listen live Thursday nights at 7:00pm Eastern time.

1. Asdrubal Cabrera will out-earn Miguel Tejada.

2. Barry Zito finishes the year as a top-75 fantasy SP.

3. Carlos Delgado exceeds his 2008 fantasy value.

4. Chien-Ming Wang out-earns Joba Chamberlain.

5. Justin Upton turns in a better fantasy season than his brother.

6. At least half of the Dirty Dozen Verducci pitchers make 30 starts.

7. Shin-Soo Choo turns in at least a $15 fantasy season.

8. Jamie Moyer out-earns Randy Johnson.

9. Howie Kendrick plays in 150 games and puts up a better year than Brandon Phillips.

10. Rich Harden makes 30 starts for the first time since 2004.

11. Nate McLouth posts an OPS under .800 for the season.

12. Cliff Lee makes his second straight All-Star game appearance.

13. Chase Utley puts up a better fantasy season than higher-ranked teammates Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins.

14. Gil Meche turns in a more valuable season than Derek Lowe.

15. Lastings Milledge out-earns Johnny Damon.

All of these are easily quantifiable and it is my belief that each one of these goes against conventional wisdom. The eight heads-up matchups I took all feature a lower ADP, most times by a wide margin.

I believe in all of these. I am not saying 15 ridiculous things so that when one of them magically comes true I can crow about it. However, as anyone who has ever seen one of my NCAA brackets can attest, I will never be able to retire on the wealth generated from my predictions.

So, tell me which one you think has the best shot of coming true and which one has less of a chance than Patrick changing his name to Rob Neyer’s version.

TrackBack URI for this entry

Comments (6)

Subscribe to this comment's feed

...
written by RhettOldham, April 01, 2009

Cliff Lee's prediction would be one I would not buy. Disgruntled about money, bad spring, career year in 08 all leads to decline.

I am staying from that guy. I love these "are you crazy lists" though, they are fun

• 
• +0
• 
• 

re:
written by Chase Williams, March 31, 2009

Chase - Delgado was better in both 2005 and 2006 than he was in 2008. I don't think Choo's military status has been officially cleared up but I think there's no chance it affects him in 2009.

Thanks for the info on Choo.

I guess you may be correct on Delgado, I typically only do 5x5 leagues and looking at the 5 standard hitting categories Delgado's 08 was slightly better than 06 (7 addl R, 1 more RBI & SB, .006 higher AVG). The 05 was debatable because he had .030 higher AVG 05 but less 15 R, 5 HR and 1 SB.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

...
written by BrianJoura, March 31, 2009

Thanks for the replies!

Eric - yeah, I think the playing time ones will be the least likely to come true.

Chase - Delgado was better in both 2005 and 2006 than he was in 2008. I don't think Choo's military status has been officially cleared up but I think there's no chance it affects him in 2009.

Mike - I think Moyer is a much better bet to pitch a full season. As for Harden, he does have a slight tear but this is not a recent development.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

...
written by MikePodhorzer, March 31, 2009

I think the funniest thing is that predicting Zito will be a top 75 pitcher is considered bold! Between him and Hafner going in the reserve round of my league's draft on Sunday, boy how the mighty have fallen.

I can't imagine how Moyer could possibly outearn RJ. The more Moyer pitches, the more harm he will do to your team's ERA and WHIP!!

Doesn't Harden already have a tear in his shoulder? Couple that with decreased velocity and I can't believe that this is finally the year for 30 starts.

I like the Milledge and Choo predictions though and see them as very possible. If Justin Upton decides to steal, he has a very, very slight chance of outearning BJ, but without the steals it will be impossible.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

Hmmm... some rational thoughts..
written by Chase Williams, March 31, 2009

Much more reasonable than the list of 20 I read a few minutes ago... The ones that jump out to me are:

3) Considering last year was his best year in 5 seasons I find it highly unlikely.
7) I assume you don't think the threat of him having to leave to serve in the armed forces is serious? (Sorry if this has been confirmed, last I read it was still an option).

All in all a great list..

• 
• +0
• 
• 

...
written by Eric Stashin, March 31, 2009

I'd have to say the craziest is probably Kendrick out earning Phillips. Even if Kendrick stays healthy, I have a hard time seeing him produce better numbers then Phillips, who is all but assured a 20/20 season and could possibly push 30/30 once again.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

Name

Website

Title

Comment

smaller | bigger

Subscribe via email (registered users only)

I have read and agree to the Terms of Usage.

Add Comment Preview