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22 Mar 2009 |
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...in Only leagues. That's right, the same guy who has written article after article about the concept of position scarcity and how undervalued catchers are in mixed leagues, is now telling you that position scarcity does not exist in single-league formats. Unfortunately, in all my discussions of the idea, I neglected to mention a very important point- the format and roster requirements of your league have a huge effect on whether or not position scarcity exists. It's probably not a good idea for me to make the blanket statement that position scarcity does not exist in Only leagues, but it certainly does not in 12-team NL-Only leagues in this particular year. It's completely illogical on the surface to think that a shallow mixed league has such a large degree of scarcity, where replacements are still pretty solid players, yet a single-league format has little, if any, despite an enormous difference between the top players and free agents. But, it's true. Want to see more great articles like this one? Of course you do!!! Make sure to sign up for the Premium Package now and get articles like this each and every day.
Simply qualifying as a catcher in standard 12-team mixed leagues is worth a whopping $17. Though the magnitude of the value increase is probably more than most would expect, most fantasy owners agree that McCann would be worth less if he did not qualify at catcher and Pujols would be worth more if he qualified at catcher.
No, this was not a typo. Brian McCann would lose only $1 in value if he only qualified at what we typically consider the deepest position in fantasy baseball, first base. However, the more amazing observation is in the Pujols column. Do not adjust your computer screens or hit refresh. Albert "Winnie The" Pujols would only be worth $1 more as a catcher. Could you imagine if Pujols decided to play 20 games at catcher this year to qualify at the position next year? I would guarantee you that bidding records would be set in NL-Only leagues, as the auctioneer frantically tries to keep up with the pace of bids. Common sense would tell you that the crazy bidding is justified as Pujols is so much better than a replacement catcher. But common sense would once again be wrong. The first key to grasping how this is possible is by reminding yourself exactly what position scarcity is and how player valuation works. In mixed leagues, free agent corner men are typically still pretty solid players. This is not the case with catchers. The 25th catcher is usually a .250 hitter with single-digit home run power and does not break 400 at-bats. Therefore, in mixed leagues, a replacement level first baseman is dramatically better than a replacement level catcher. Here is a comparison of the replacement levels of the two positions in mixed leagues:
You can see the dramatic difference between the two replacement sets. Now let's compare the lines in an NL-Only league:
The two replacement level lines are much closer here than in mixed leagues, and are both pretty terrible. When you get so deep into a player pool, replacement level players at every position will be poor as they all receive 250 at-bats at most. When the replacement levels are the same across all positions, suddenly the fantasy owners who never believe in position scarcity in any format are right for a change. You could literally compare a player's raw stat line, which is without any adjustments, to another player regardless of position. This really is fascinating and something that is far from obvious, but makes loads of sense once you understand the root cause. Another Valuation Finding The last thing I wanted to discuss is something I alluded to above. After running my NL-Only values, it became clear to me that I must have done something wrong because it appeared that the batting average category was being massively overvalued. Or so I thought. After some deep thought, the light bulb turned on. In a single-league format, fantasy teams accumulate fewer at-bats than they would in a mixed league because many owners carry part-timers. There are simply not enough full-time players to go around. As a result, the full-time players that do find their way onto your team now contribute a higher percentage of the overall team at-bats. That means that each individual player's batting average has a greater impact on your team's average than in mixed leagues. A .300 average from a full-time player in an Only league is that much more valuable, whereas a .250 average from a full-timer player hurts that much more. You could even take the batting average concept and apply it to the pitching side as well. Since middle relievers actually have positive value in Only leagues and are therefore found on many Only league teams, but rarely found on mixed league rosters, Only league teams on average accumulate fewer innings. Therefore, the impact of a low/inflated ERA and/or WHIP is greater. Faced with the choice between a solid middle reliever, even if he has no shot at closing, or someone like Jeff Suppan, the correct play will always be the MR, since Suppan could be death to your ERA and WHIP.
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  written by RedRum, March 22, 2009
Wow!!!! This is mind blowing stuff...
Im a believer....Makes a lot of sense once its broken down....
written by MikePodhorzer, March 20, 2009
It wasn't a "reaction", but it was an observation based on the dollar values I calculated for the league. I haven't calculated values for other leagues besides a 12-team mixed, but an AL-Only league is likely to result in the same results. The league format and rules could have dramatic effects on values though, so unless you actually run the values, you won't know exactly how they change.
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Tags: valuation dollar values projections position scarcity fantasy baseball strategy albert pujols brian mccann drafts auctions
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Your analysis is very logical, although not commonplace.