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14
Jan
2009
The High-Priced Bust of 2008 PDF  | Print |  E-mail
Fantasy Baseball Blog
Written by Christopher Mulligan   

I thought long and hard about the biggest high-priced bust of 2008.   Who is the guy that drove you so mad that every time you saw his stats for the day roll across the bottom of your TV screen you wanted to punch yourself in the face for drafting him?  Who is the one player that when you watched him you felt like putting your foot through the screen?  Who is the player that went from money in the bank to the biggest bum in baseball?



Ladies and gentlemen, your winner for the high-priced bust of 2008 is...(opening envelope)...Victor Martinez!

Victor Martinez - 2008

What was there to miss with Victor Martinez?

You couldn't miss.  He was coming off of a career year in 2007 in which he hit .300 with 25 HR and 114 RBI.  He was the top dog among all catchers and no one else was close.  Coming into '08 Martinez was arguably more valued than ever.  His ADP was right around 28-29 and he was going in auctions anywhere from $24-$30. 

Martinez got off to a pretty good start in 2008 when it came to hitting for average.  He hit .350 in April in 22 games.  However, he had only 9 RBI and 0 HR.  May was a bad month for V-Mart.  He only hit .221 in May and saw his BA drop .64 points from .356 to .292.  Still no home runs.  He continued to struggle in June when it was announced that Martinez would undergo elbow surgery that would sideline him for at least two months.  Now, not only did Martinez still have 0 HR but he there was a possibility that he would miss the rest of the season.  Martinez came back in late August and was able to play 19 games down the stretch.  He finished the season with a .278 BA, 2 HR, and 35 RBI.  It's not exactly what you expect from a top 30 player.

In fairness to Martinez and his numbers, he did play hurt for a good part of his '08 season and missed a nice chunk of the season due to the surgery.  However, when he was playing healthy he still somehow did not a hit a single HR until Sept. 2.  But when it comes to applying the bust label to a player, you have to factor in injuries as well.  It may seem unfair, but we spend the big money on these high picks and expect them to produce all year.  When a top player like Martinez goes down with an injury it's often as bad overall under-performance.  When we play that much for a player it, in the end it doesn't matter the reason for lack of production but the fact that there is a lack of production, a void that is very difficult to make up.

Selecting the Winner


The winner was picked after review of numerous mock drafts, rankings, and auction values.  Of course, I pored over the 2008 stats and the top 100 preseason rankings.  It was a surprise how many "busts" there were among those top 100 players, making it difficult to select a winner.  I considered factoring out injuries but it didn't seem reasonable to do so for reasons I mentioned above.  But Martinez stood out from rest as the biggest failure.  Considering that he was a top 30 pick, he had a dollar value close to $30, and numbers resembling those of the last guy on the bench his victory was deserved.

Other Nominees

All of these players listed below were among the top 100 in most '08 preseason rankings and had a dollar value of at least $18.  Some produced decent numbers but accomplished nowhere near their expectations or draft status.

 
Player
'08 ADP
Proj. '08 $ Value
'07 Stats
'08 Stats
Jimmy Rollins
8.4
35
.296/ 30/ 94/ 41
.277/ 11/ 59/ 47
Carl Crawford
19.4
34
.315/ 11/ 80/ 50
.273/ 8 /57/ 25
David Ortiz
18.0
32
.331/ 35/ 117 //3
.264/ 23/ 89/ 1
J.J. Putz
57.4
27
1.39 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 40 S, 82K
3.88 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 15 S, 56K
B.J. Upton
24.8
26
.300/ 24/ 82/ 22
.273/ 9/ 67/ 44
Troy Tulowitzki
47.8
25
.290/ 24/ 99/ 7
.262/ 8/ 46/ 1
Eric Byrnes
67.6
25
.285/ 21/ 83/ 50
.208/ 6/ 23/ 4
Erik Bedard
49.0
24
3.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 13 W, 221K
3.62 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 6 W, 72 K
Justin Verlander
59.4
21
3.67 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 18 W, 183 K
4.84 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 11 W, 163 K














While some of these players had huge dropoffs from '07, none were as precipitous as that of Martinez, with the closest being Eric Byrnes.  While not coming close to expectations, most of the players above were at least able to give some production as opposed to next to no production from Martinez.  Here's hoping for big rebounds from all the above mentioned, especially V-Mart.

Do you believe that Martinez is the "High-Priced Bust of 2008"?  If not, who is?  Is it someone from the other nominees or someone off the board?  Of the rest of the nominees, who had the worst 2008?

Trackback(0)
Comments (18)Add Comment
...
written by paco, January 27, 2009
I drafted both VMart and JRoll in one of my leagues in '08...and still won it.
...
written by JO WOLOSZ, January 18, 2009
Travis Hafner was a much bigger bust than Martiez
Comments cut off
written by tonycincotta, January 16, 2009
It is part of anti spam filter to stop flooding of the site. Once again great research, Steve
...
written by Steve Shane, January 16, 2009
b4 missing the rest of the season with a left hamstring injury, Byrnes line was .167/.217/.384, not exactly Ruthian.

(anyone know why some comments get cut short?)
...
written by Steve Shane, January 16, 2009
About VMart:

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2008/06/wedge_says_martinez_still_both.html

The first paragraph sums it up pretty good...


Eric Byrnes, slugged .459+ in 4 of the 5 years prior to the 08 season, the off year was the year he played on 3 different teams, in 08, he slugged .369

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=3414700

Byrnes says he hurt his hammy a month prior to this article (may 27), lets assume he hurt it the game b4 sitting out 2 games (apr 23)

Byrnes line up to APR 23 was .361/.517/.878, his line from APR 24 till his first DL stint (May 26) was .208/.271/.479. Side note, Byrnes hit 2 of the 3 HR from APR 23-May 27 in the last 4 games he played, probably when his hamstrings were the healthiest. In the 6 games Byrnes played, after missing ~25 games with a right hamstring injury and b4 missing the rest of the season with a left hamstring injury, Byrnes line was .167/.217/.384, not exactly Ruthian.

I rest my case on having a bad hamstring hinders ones ability.
...
written by ChristopherMulligan, January 16, 2009
Steve Shane,

I did say that he played the hurt for a good deal of the season. I should have clarified but when I say that "while healthy" I mean that he was out there playing, not on the DL.

A pulled hamstring should not have kept him from hitting a single home run in three months. Eric Byrnes was playing with two torn hamstrings and still managed to hit four home runs. Hundreds of players in baseball history have hit plenty of home runs with pulled hamstrings. I don't think that kind of an injury is an excuse for his lack of production.

I appreciate the enthusiasm!
...
written by Cad, January 15, 2009
No wonder I had a hard time with my Mafia League team last year. I had Verlander and Harang to anchor my staff and V-Mart and Byrnes in my lineup to start the season.
Steve Great Point
written by Paul greco, January 15, 2009
Steve,

You make greats points it's the stuff that came after your points that made it not what we're really looking for in this community.

"I dont understand how time and time again the so-called "experts" on
this site forget/leave out/misremember important details in their
articles."

So we won't post or keep those types of comments on our boards. Point out the fact that VMART was hurt, but there is no reason, and it will not be tolerated here, when you attack. If you want to attack peoples writings, head to another website.

We appreciate your comments, I've laughed at a few, and think you have strong points. That being said, I won't tolerate or allow you or any one else that comes here to attack a writer. That's not what this community is about.

If you want to contact me you can e-mail me at \n This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it '> This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it and I'll gladly give it to you to discuss this further.

--PAUL
Steve Shane
written by tonycincotta, January 15, 2009
The content is not the issue with your posts. Lets just keep it to the facts and the story. The personel attacks on the writer or the site will not be tolerated. I have read your responses at fangraphs and other sites on the internet. You know your stuff and I would love to have our readers consume your knowledge.
...
written by Steve Shane, January 15, 2009
First off, why did my post get deleted??? Is pointing out flaws/innaccuraies not allowed on this site???

I dont understand how you can have an article on VMarts 08 season, and not mention his pulled hamstring, suffered on opening day, that lingered until August???

The fact of the matter was VMart was never healthy, as purported in the article, and wouldnt this be the most probable reason for his lack of power??
...
written by RobReed, January 15, 2009
Harang was my death knell last year... he was one of my money league keepers. My frustration deepened from the get-go with Harang and Sabathia... fortunately, Sabathia panned out.

But the $15 I spent on Harang (as a keeper) was a definite bust. I definitely expect him to go back to 2007 form, though.
...
written by will, January 15, 2009
i traded ichiro suzuki for martinez last season. Damn, was I mad...
...
written by ChristopherMulligan, January 15, 2009
Chuck,

Harang killed me in a league too. Actually he was my first pitcher taken but I was able to recover and win the league. It wasn't looking good for a while though. What do you expect from him this year?

Mailman,

Your team was horrible. You gonna keep him?
...
written by ChristopherMulligan, January 15, 2009
Big O,

I thought about using Verlander instead of Martinez. He was my preseason Cy Young pick, good call Chris.

Joe,

My argument against using Putz was..at least he got 15 S. But I was in a couple of auctions and he went for real big bucks. I think in one he went for $37...ouch.
...
written by DaMailman52, January 14, 2009
No doubt Jimmy Rollins I was thrilled to get him in the 2nd round. Come on the 07 MVP 18th pick?...no brainer. Just another stellar draft pick on my horrible team. CFH
...
written by ChuckAnderson, January 14, 2009
Spread over my teams last year I had Rollins, Crawford, Ortiz, Putz, Tulo, Bedard, and Verlander, but none of them killed me like Aaron Harang
...
written by JoeLano, January 14, 2009
Bedard killed me in one league last season as kept waiting for him to turn it around.
I traded Crawford for Ludwick in one league and that turned out great, who would have thunk that?
Putz hurt me in a league too. Boy, I sure had some real stinkers last season!
...
written by big o, January 14, 2009
of the rest , probably verlander.
guys like bedard and putz could be replaced . unlike andruw in 07 , for whom i projected an up-tick.
never did sit him until mid-september.

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