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30 Jul 2009 |
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| Trading season is in full force and yesterday was a busy and exciting day. Let's see how these trades affect the players involved for fantasy purposes:
SP Ian Snell and SS Jack Wilson to Pirates C/1B Jeff Clement, SS Ronny Cedeno and a bunch of minor league pitchers to Mariners Ian Snell- He has been a disaster the last two seasons after breaking out in 2007 and showing some strong skills that year. Snell's biggest problem since then has been his control. He had elbow problems last year and one wonders how much that may be affecting his performance, especially since elbow injuries typically lead to a loss of control. You could call him a head case or a player simply not trying hard because he doesn't want to play for the Pirates anymore, but as usual, I like to stick with the facts and not speculate on something we could never prove. Pitching at Triple-A now, he has absolutely dominated minor league hitters with a 47/13 K:BB ratio in 37.1 innings, but that still represents a 3.1 BB/9, which is merely average, and not very impressive for a pitcher who had been pitching for years at the major league level. The fantastic strikeout rate is nice, obviously, but you would have to think an established major league pitcher should have an easy time throwing to Triple-A batters, and so we shouldn't get too excited yet about the imminent return of the 2007 Snell. According to StatCorner, PNC Park has decreased strikeouts by 5%, walks by 6.1% and HR/FB by 9.1%, while being exactly league average for runs scored. SAFECO Field, on the other hand, has increased strikeouts by 9% and walks by 6.1%, while HR/FB has been reduced by 4% and runs by 4.9%. The net effect of all these factors on a strictly park factor basis is that Snell's strikeout rate would increase by about 15%, walk rate by about 13% and HR/FB ratio by nearly 6%, while his runs allowed are reduced by 4.9%. Of course, since he is moving into the AL, his walk rate should increase, while his strikeout rate decreases because of the lack of a pitcher in the lineup and existence of the DH. The one piece of positive news is the improved defensive support Snell should receive. Though the Pirates have improved dramatically this year, posting a .293 team BABIP, the Mariners rank second in baseball with a .282 team BABIP allowed. The two teams' UZR/150 are nearly identical and near the top of the leader board, so both teams clearly have excellent defenses. Snell might see the slightest of improvements in defensive support, but given the randomness of BABIP over a short sample, anything could really happen in the next two months. In sum, I would call this a negative for Snell's fantasy value, especially since he won't receive much better run support either. Of course the fact that he will probably be called back up to the majors is a positive, but in terms of pure performance expectations, I think he loses value. Jack Wilson- Ahhh, the rare 0 category fantasy contributor. Those types are fun to discuss. I am not sure why I am wasting keystrokes on him, but needless to say, his fantasy value changes little. He goes from having some value solely in NL-Only leagues to having some value solely in AL-Only leagues (or of course those NL leagues that allow you to keep players traded into the other league). Jeff Clement- As long as Ryan Doumit remains behind the plate, Clement's future is probably at first base. He probably won't have any fantasy value this year, but with catcher eligibility again next year, he could be a nice sleeper if he wins the starting first base job. Though not hitting as well as he did when he was tearing it up at Triple-A last year, he is still showing excellent power (.218 ISO), making acceptable contact (78.2% rate) and showing solid patience (10.4% walk rate). Keep in mind though that this is his fourth year at Triple-A and he is already 25 years old, so his prospect status is quickly fading. However, he has only been given 219 major league at bats, hardly enough of a sample to claim that he simply cannot hit pitching at that level. I really think he is capable of hitting 20-25 home runs, while batting around .260 in 2010 if given full time at-bats. That would make him quite valuable assuming catcher eligibility and a prime sleeper. Ronny Cedeno- Oh well, I was enjoying his complete inability to hit as he racked up points on my Razzball team, but now he will not receive enough playing time to be worth keeping on my team. SP Cliff Lee and OF Ben Francisco to Phillies SP Jason Knapp, SP Carlos Carrasco, C Lou Marson, and IF Jason Donald to Indians Cliff Lee- Lee has sustained most of the skill improvement he showed last year that fueled his unlikely magical season, but some expected regression has taken place. Once again though, he has been getting real lucky, with both his HR/FB ratio (5.8%) and LOB% (79.1%) suggesting that his 3.14 ERA is well below what his skills would indicate. His xFIP is a less impressive 4.09. As a result, without any ballpark or park switch, we would have expected Lee's ERA to rise over the remainder of the season. This season, Progressive Field has inflated strikeouts by 4.4% and walks by 5.2%, while HR/FB has been decreased by 6.4% and runs scored by 4.2%. These rates tell us that Progressive Field has played as a pitcher's park this year and has no doubt helped Lee. On the other hand, Citizens Bank Park has increased strikeouts by 3.6%, reduced walks by 0.7%, increased HR/FB by a whopping 16.4% and runs scored by 2.7%. The net effect of the ballpark switch is about a 1% decrease in strikeouts and 6% drop in walks, but a 24% increase in HR/FB and 7% in runs scored. Clearly, the park switch is going to really hurt Lee, but of course that is just for half his games. His HR/FB ratio was already due to rise, so the ballpark switch is likely to accelerate the regression. From a defensive support standpoint, Lee should receive some better fielding. The Indians have allowed a .310 BABIP, while the Phillies have been better with a .300 mark. The teams' UZR/150 backs up the better defensive support Lee is likely to benefit from as the Phillies rank in the top half, while the Indians are in the bottom half. Overall, Lee's strikeout rate should jump based on the league switch, while his walks should decline because of the league switch and the difference in walk rate park factors. His HR/FB ratio should spike enough to offset the improved strikeout and walk rates and lead to a slightly higher ERA the rest of the season compared to if he had stayed with the Indians. Though the Phillies do have a better offense, the Indians rank fifth in the AL in wOBA, so they had the potential to produce solid run support for Lee the rest of the way, even though they have not so far. I think Lee's ERA will rise, but the increased strikeouts and possible win potential means that his fantasy value increases slightly, if not remains about the same. Ben Francisco- Assuming Shane Victorino's knee is okay, Francisco loses substantial value as he becomes just a fourth outfielder. He had been displaying a nice power/speed combo, so this is unfortunate for AL-Only owners. Jason Knapp- I do not know much about this guy other than his statistics and reading that some scout strangely compared him to Roy Halladay. I have no idea where that comparison came from, considering Knapp's control is below average and he is a fly ball pitcher, as opposed to Halladay who is a strong ground ball pitcher. In fact, nothing in his statistical profile supports the comparison, since Knapp has posted a fantastic strikeout rate at the low levels of the minor leagues as well, and we of course know that Halladay is not a top strikeout artist. Knapp appears to be the complete opposite of Halladay from a results perspective! Apparently Knapp was the cornerstone of the deal, but he is only 18 years old and pitching at Single-A, so he has a long ways to go before we have a real good clue what he might become. Carlos Carrasco- He has posted a league average ground ball rate throughout his minor league career, so leaving Citizens Bank will certainly help his ability to prevent the long ball. However, he has shown solid but unspectacular strikeout rates, along with mediocre control at best and the move to the AL might mean he will have difficulty posting a sub-4.00 ERA. Ignore his 5.18 ERA this year though, that is due to a .330 BABIP and 62.8% LOB%. 2B Freddy Sanchez to Giants SP Tim Alderson to Pirates This is the only trade I care to give my opinion on before analyzing its effects on the players. My initial reaction was "WOW, Sabean just gave up their second best pitching prospect for Freddy Sanchez?!?!?!" Then a look at Alderson's minor league stats caused me to think less poorly of the move by the Giants, though still not enough to reverse my opinion that it was a win for the Pirates. Even if the Giants have soured on Alderson or know something we don't, you have to think he could have gotten much more. Freddy Sanchez- The team switch shouldn't affect his fantasy value much as he goes from one poor offense to another. He doesn't have much power, so AT&T Park deflating home runs even more so than PNC isn't going to make much of a difference. Tim Alderson- Pitching in AT&T Park is a little better than pitching at PNC Park, but probably not as much as some might think given AT&T's reputation as such an extreme pitcher's park. I alluded to this above, but Alderson appears to be one of the most overrated prospects in baseball. Yes, he has displayed excellent control so far, and he is a slight ground ball pitcher. However, his strikeout rate is pathetic and has declined from 7.7 at High-A in 2008, to 6.9 at the same level this year, to just 5.7 at Double-A. If you could only manage a 5.7 K/9 at Double-A, where do you think it will end up once he reaches the majors?! Unless you are an extreme ground ball pitcher, that strikeout rate and trend are just not going to translate well. This is not the profile of a top pitching prospect and it looks like the Giants had the right idea in trying to capitalize on his prospect status. However, like I said above, unless every other GM in baseball has come to the exact same conclusion, I have to think someone would have been willing to give up more than just Sanchez. It never ceases to amaze me how someone who is so bad at his job can continue to keep it for years and years. Trackback(0)
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Tags: ian snell jeff clement cliff lee ben francisco jason knapp carlos carrasco freddy sanchez tim alderson
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