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22
Jan
2009
Top Five Stories For 2009--Chicago Cubs PDF  | Print |  E-mail
The Top Five
Written by Mike Podhorzer   
We move on to the NL Central and begin with the division champ, Billy Goat and Steve Bartman cursed Chicago Cubbies.

1. Will the real Ryan Dempster please stand up (please stand up)? Yes, I have decided to channel my inner Eminem to discuss Ryan Dempster's surprising shocking 2008 season. Is the real Ryan the one who came into the year with a career 4.82 ERA or is it closer to the guy who posted a 2.96 ERA? You won't like me for this, but the truth is of course, somewhere in the middle. The keys to his season was a confluence (this is my first time ever using this word, doesn't it sound cool?) of good luck and a much improved walk rate. His BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB were all better than his career marks (and at unsustainable levels), which is typical when a pitcher has a career year. However, given a solid ground ball rate and K/9 over 8, he still had an expected ERA of 3.89, which would have been the 2nd best mark of his career as a starting pitcher. The question is how much of his control gains will he hold. Dempster has been pitching since 1998, and just once has he had a BB/9 below 4.00, and that year it was barely below at 3.86. It also came all the way back in 2000. It is very unlikely that the light bulb has suddenly turned on at age 31. So we should expect some regression in his walk rate. Throwing all the skills together, I still think he could post a sub-4.00 ERA in 2009, though it will probably be in the high-3.00 range. 

2. What does Geovany Soto do for an encore? After doing basically nothing in the minors previously, Soto went nuts in 2007 to the tune of a 1.063 OPS in 381 at-bats. Naturally when it came time to projecting what Soto would do as the full-time Cubs backstop in 2008, there was no shortage of skeptics. Clearly Geovany took offense to those who doubted him as he won the NL ROY by proving that his 2007 bust out was no fluke. There really is nothing in his statistical profile that screams out that a huge fall is in order or that further growth will occur in 2009. However, if you look hard enough, there are a couple of small warning signs. His BABIP was .337, yet his xBABIP was just .295 based on new research by Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix on THT. Soto's OPS also dropped nearly 50 points and his Power Index dropped 32 points in the 2nd half, which could have been the result of tiring down the stretch, or pitchers "figuring him out." I think the percentage play here is to expect more of the same, with a drop in batting average, or a slight step back. I do not foresee further growth coming just yet.

3. Who plays 2nd base? Hmm, you're the Cubs manager and have the choice of playing a guy who has posted OPS marks of .825 and .925 in Triple-A in 2006 and 2007, followed by .738 and .909 in 2007 and 2008 with the Cubs and is right in the middle of his prime, or a 32 year old coming off a career year with a .753 OPS and a career average OPS of just .693. Who would you choose? To make for a fairer comparison, we'll throw defense into the loop and judging by UZR, the younger, better hitter described above appears to be a plus defender, whereas the older, weaker hitter is merely average. The last point to note is that the first player is a lefty and has only received 73 at-bats versus them in his limited major league career, posting a .675 OPS. The 2nd player is a switch hitter and has hit lefties better than righties over the last 3 years. Of course you know that the younger, better hitting and fielding lefty is Mike Fontenot and the older, weaker hitting and fielding switch hitter is newly acquired Aaron Miles. This appears to be the perfect platoon situation. I would expect 400-450 at-bats for Fontenot with the rest going to Miles. However, Fontenot is in for some regression, perhaps major, so it's possible a slow start or elongated slump allows Miles to garner extra playing time.

4. The 5th starter spot goes to... Sean Marshall has the inside track and unless the non-2008 Rich Hill reappears, there shouldn't be much competition. Marshall's K/9 took a large jump in 2008 and you have to wonder whether he can hold onto his gains. His cutter usage spiked from 7.5% to 19.8% and he threw his curveball 25.0% of the time, up from 18.2% in 2007. His fastball usage has dropped 2 years in a row and sat at just 38.1%, which makes a lot of sense considering his average velocity was just 87.8 MPH. Given his pitch selection changes, it's very possible that Marshall has established a new K/9 skill level, though the percentage play is to still expect some regression here. His walk rate has been average, but his GB% took a dive from 48.2% in 2007 to just 41.2% in 2008. I wonder whether the change in pitch selection had something to do with the reduction in grounders or if it was just random variance in a smallish 65.1 inning sample. Whatever the case, he seems like a solid end-game buy in NL-Only leagues and I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up on some rosters of mixed leaguers at some point during the season.

5. The arrival of Milton Bradley. Bradley has been just like Nick Johnson throughout his career. He has always hit when he's been on the field, but staying on the field has been a major problem. He had a career year in 2008, which not surprisingly came in Texas, where he posted a 1.145 OPS, versus an .872 OPS away from home. Bradley benefitted from a ridiculous .396 BABIP, way above his career .326 rate and his HR/FB ratio jumped to 21.2, versus a 15.4% career rate. That last metric was of course helped by hitting at Ameriquest Field, where he launched 16 of his 22 homers. Somewhat surprisingly, 3-year park factors show Wrigley Field as boosting runs, right-handed homers and left-handed homers by more than at Ameriquest Field. That suggests that the ballpark switch won't affect Bradley's production. However, that BABIP is going to come way down, though since his contact rate was the 2nd lowest of his career, I'd expect that to rebound and somewhat offset the BABIP drop. The real issue of course is health, and now moving to the NL where he doesn't have the luxury of DH'ing, it's tough to project more than 400 at-bats.

Bonus story: Who closes? Carlos Marmol is the better pitcher, while Kevin Gregg has the stupid "closer tag". Buy skills, not roles!
If you'd like to read more of my stuff (and let's face it, who wouldn't? ), then check out the Premium Site for 2 new articles from me every week, in addition to the great content from our other writers, and of course, our can't-find-anywhere-else Interactive Projections.
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written by Boris From Downunder, January 22, 2009
Nice job as usual Mike, a great read. I think that Lou really wants Marshall as the number 6 starter/swingman, and once the Trib sale gets done, Hendry will be adding another arm. This becomes particularly important given the reports about Rich Harden having some arm issues, and that he is of course, Rich Harden. Fontenot is an interesting one, and may be a handy late guy to pick in deep NL drafts - he has a bit of pop and can run the bases.
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written by MikePodhorzer, January 22, 2009
I really have no problem with Gregg winning the closer role, since I don't think a team's closer should necessarily be their best relief pitcher. However, most of the time a team's best reliever is or ends up the closer and Gregg's skills have really declined to the point that he could pitch himself out of the role quickly. Marmol has his own risks, but he's definitely a much better pitcher than Gregg.
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written by big o, January 22, 2009
maybe it's just "sweet lou" espousing the company line in justifying the hiring of a closer, but do you trust him not to keep marmol in that critically important 8th inning role ?
perhaps of all the managers out there, pinella most subscribes to the theory that anyone can notch a 3-run save.
my guess is that if marmol gets any saves, it will be of the 2 inning variety , until gregg proves totally incapable of handling 9th inning situations.

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