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02 Feb 2009 |
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We continue our series in the NL Central with the Cincinnati Reds.
2. Aaron Harang's follow-up to his 2008 disaster. Much has been discussed on what happened to Harang last year, how it correlated with his surprise relief appearance, etc. Many of the optimists are pointing to his 3.07 September ERA as reason to expect a bounce back. Of course, these same optimists are completely ignoring the 5.5 K/9 he posted in that same month. Harang is usually a pretty good strikeout pitcher, so that low of a mark suggests that he never was quite right. His walk rate was also the worst since 2004 and FB% the worst since 2002. So basically nothing went right for Harang last season. It is clear that he was just never at 100% all season. I'm willing to give him a mulligan for an off-year, but his health is what scares me. He missed time due to elbow troubles; who knows if he's truly healthy now? That's really all it hinges on for me. If 100%, he's an absolute steal in drafts. There are doubts and we wouldn't be surprised to see him go down for an extended period of time this year and end up having surgery. Given his ADP he is a decent risk. 3. The dynamic pitching duo of the future, Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto. After all the spring training hype Cueto received, Volquez ended up stealing the show. Besides good luck in the first half, a big reason for Edinson's 2.08 ERA was a 51% ground ball rate. He's always been a neutral GB/FB pitcher, so it was quite a surprise when he began inducing so many grounders. The honeymoon ended in the second half as his GB% fell back down to Earth, hitting 42%, basically where we expected him to be all year. This decline, along with a drop in K/9 and luck regression, all contributed to the 4.38 second half ERA. I'm going to assume a GB% in the low 40's is his true skill level, so unless he improves his walk rate, that ERA is going to rise into the high 3's. Cueto actually has a reasonable chance of posting a better ERA than Volquez and outearning him in fantasy leagues. He suffered from some poor luck and has also shown much better control in the minors. I think he has upside there as well as in his strikeout rate, so if his luck improves, he could actually break the 4.00 ERA barrier. 4. The exciting pair of outfielders, Jay Bruce and Chris Dickerson. Though many may have called him a slight disappointment, Bruce had a very 5. Can Homer Bailey reestablish his top prospect status? So far, Homer Bailey is just another example of TINSTAAPP (There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect). To be honest though, did we really expect a pitcher named Homer to pan out? Living up to his name perfectly, he allowed 8 homers in just 36.1 innings in his brilliant (sarcasm) cup of coffee with the Reds in 2008. Homer will only be 23 this year and he pitched decently in Triple-A last year (ignore what his ERA says). Reports say that his stuff hasn't been the same as in previous years and his fastball was slower than advertised. This is actually a pretty ominous sign if he can't regain the stuff that vaulted him to the top of prospect lists in the first place. At this point, it obviously doesn't look like he'll ever live up to his early hype. However, he could be a better than league-average pitcher and if he improves his control or finds his stuff, could come close to what everyone had expected from him to begin with. And this might shock some of you, but he's one of the few players where actually watching him pitch might be clouding my judgment and causing me to be more optimistic. The one game I saw, his stuff looked pretty darn good, so it was quite shocking to see him only muster a 4.5 K/9 with the Reds last season. Trackback(0)
Comments (9)
  written by a guest, February 03, 2009
The radio schedule posted on the site is off, Tony you might want to revise it a little.
By the way, am I the only one that has an interest in the Caribbean World Series?
written by tonycincotta, February 03, 2009
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/FantasyBaseballMafia
4:00 EST just what I need another plug. Just catering to Mike's wishes
written by MikePodhorzer, February 03, 2009
Rhett, I only see the Roundtable broadcasting tonight. Did you mean tomorrow's show at 8 PM EST?
written by RhettOldham, February 03, 2009
Tony Cincotta and I will be talking about this article on Fantasy Baseball Live today. Make sure and tune in.
written by MikePodhorzer, February 03, 2009
big o, would love to go to some more minor league games. I've only been to a couple of Trenton Thunder games in the last few years. Actually saw Fernando Martinez, but no one else exciting.
The great thing about Votto is the steals. He didn't steal at a very good success rate in the majors, but he was better in the minors, so he could still low double digits. He could be like a Derrek Lee in his prime, minus that career 46 HR season.
written by big o, February 03, 2009
yep, shocks me . (that you're responding to visual stimuli).
let's take it a step further, mike . votto was on my team last year, and as i recall, he took a bereavement leave (father ?). when he re-joined the team, he never skipped a beat, though i considered sitting him . (heart ?). stop me, if i'm going too fast . what i'm suggesting is that you join lenny, wayne, and i, for a minor league game down in bridgeport this summer .... 1st round's on me .
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Tags: top five stories cincinnati reds joey votto aaron harang edinson volquez johnny cueto jay bruce chris dickerson homer bailey
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1. Joey Votto's sophomore season. Votto had a very solid rookie campaign, posting an .874 OPS and finishing second in the ROY voting. All of his skills were in line with his minor league history, and his blistering second half is a good sign for the future. So what can we expect this year? His second half was bolstered by improved contact and walk rates, and that is basically it. His power was essentially the same in both halves, so the surge doesn't appear to be as exciting as on first glance. The power is interesting. On one hand, he sported an 18.5% HR/FB ratio, which is quite high. He wasn't a huge home run hitter in the minors- he hit just 22 in 496 at-bats in Triple-A in 2007 and 22 in 508 at-bats in Double-A in 2006. It's difficult to expect a rate that high again. On the other hand, his FB% was just 31%, which is extremely low for a supposed power hitter. He had a 25% LD%, so if some of those line drives become fly balls, he might not lose as much in the HR/AB department. On the whole, I'd look for a couple of extra homers and steals, a slight drop in batting average, and 180-190 RBI+R.
respectable year given that he was just 21 years old in his first taste of big league action. Like Votto, Bruce posted a high 20% HR/FB ratio. This could very well be sustainable, but without minor league HR/FB ratio data, it's difficult for me to expect a repeat. He also strikes out a lot and could afford to take a couple of more walks, so he likely won't be helping you in batting average anytime soon without an inflated BABIP. Dickerson has a nice combination of power and speed, but he strikes out even more than Bruce and doesn't have nearly the power to make up for it. He does have a very good walk rate, though, so he looks like a less powerful version of Mike Cameron to me. He's posted some very high BABIP marks in the minors, so we'll have to see if he is one of the outliers who could sustain such high levels in the majors. I would pay for him expecting him to hurt your average, with anything higher than .260 a bonus.
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