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Top Five Stories For 2009--Colorado Rockies PDF Print E-mail
The Top Five
Written by Mike Podhorzer   
Monday, 23 February 2009 15:45

Our next stop in our NL West rundown of the top 5 stories in 2009 brings us to beer field and the Colorado Rockies.


 

1. Chris Iannetta's follow up to a break out 2008. He showed us the potential in the minors, but a 197 at-bat flop in 2007 made us and the Rockies forget all about him coming into 2008. His strikeout rate remains sky high, but there is hope as it had been much better prior to 2007 in his time with the Rockies. If he does improve that contact rate back into the 80% range, he may be able to actually help your batting average which will really boost his fantasy value. I have to expect his home run rate will decline as he posted an 18.2% HR/FB in 2008. I can't imagine that being his true skill level, though he did hit 11 homers in 156 at-bats all the way back in 2006 at Double-A. For 2009, I'd expect a similar average and home run total, with a bump in RBI+R due to increased playing time. Oh, and sorry Brian Joura, but no, Iannetta will not be a first rounder in 2010!

2. Will the real Troy Tulowitzki please stand up? No one expected Tulo to be as good as he was so quickly in 2007. However, he did post a nearly identical .291/.359/.479 line that year as he did at Double-A in 2006, so maybe it shouldn't have been such a surprise. It appears that his doubles turned into home runs and the rest of his skills were almost exactly what you should have expected. In 2008, he actually improved his walk and strikeout rates, yet a drop in BABIP and power, due to either injuries or bad luck, ruined his season. I'd expect 2009 to look closer to 2007 than 2008, but I would not project a full rebound as I do think 2007 was a little over Tulo's head. Remember, until a short seven at-bat stint at Triple-A in 2008, he hadn't ever seen a pitch at the level.

3. Ubaldo Jimenez's chances of posting another sub-4.00 ERA. Ubaldo managed to post a 3.99 ERA despite a 4.7 BB/9 rate and 1.43 WHIP. That's the magic of a 54% ground ball rate and why we continually stress its importance. Sure, he did get a little lucky given his low 6.9% HR/FB ratio, but there is reason to believe he could improve his skills in 2009 that would allow him to post a legitimate sub-4.00 ERA. Though velocity obviously isn't everything, he enjoys the highest average fastball speed among starters at 94.9 MPH and throws four pitches. His K/9 jumped from 7.2 to 8.3 from the first to the second half, so an increase over the 7.8 full-season rate he posted is quite possible. His BB/9 also came down a bit in the second half, though that shouldn't have been too difficult considering it was at an ugly 4.9 in the first half. His BB/9 was "just" 4.1 in 2007, so he should be able to improve upon his 2008 mark in 2009. I do question the sustainability of that GB% though, since it was just 46% in 2007. However, when you put his skills package together and his chances of improvement, another ERA right around 4.00 is likely.

4. Who the heck starts in left and center field? Current depth charts show Ian Stewart, Seth Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, Ryan Spilborghs, Scott Podsednik, and Matt Murton as contenders for at-bats in the outfield. Woah. Are they trying to compete with the Nationals here or something?! Last week, manager Clint Hurdle indicated that Seth Smith was the favorite to start in left field, while Ryan Spilborghs is being looked at as the lead off man, which suggests that he's the front-runner to start in center field. Ian Stewart would likely collect starts at third base when Atkins slides over to first to rest Helton, second base, and left field and should still receive 400 at-bats. Carlos Gonzalez and Fowler will likely begin the year in the minors, while Podsednik and Murton win bench jobs at best. Smith looks like a nice NL-Only sleeper who will contribute a little across the board, while Spilborghs is very similar and could provide even better value, especially if he hits lead off.

5. Who closes, Huston Street or Manny Corpas? Though nothing has been confirmed, it appears that Huston Street will open the season as the Rockies closer. He does remain a trade deadline candidate and that might cause him to lose his closer role, but besides that weighing on his prospects, he'll be undervalued. He battled through injuries last year as he saw his K/9 drop and BB/9 rise, but if healthy, should rebound. Though in looking at his history, it looks like his 2007 K/9 of 11.3 might be the outlier, but he's a good bet to get his BB/9 back under 3.00. Manny Corpas would probably do fine as the closer, but Street is the better pitcher and will not pitch himself out of the role.

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written by MikePodhorzer, February 24, 2009
Well Olin, the easy answer is to check out my projections on the premium side! smilies/cheesy.gif

Anyway, he's no longer even worth drafting as a starter in 12-team mixed leagues since back problems have sapped his power. He'll also probably be rested a lot with Atkins moving across the diamond and Stewart playing some 3rd. I wouldn't even consider Helton an NL-Only rebound sleeper type.

His batting average will rebound somewhat though, as his .298 BABIP was easily the lowest of his career and well below his .340 career rate.
...
written by big o, February 24, 2009
what kind of numbers are you projecting for helton ?
slow start or fast ?

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