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11 Feb 2009 |
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We head into the NL West and begin with a look at the top five stories for 2009 for the Los Angeles Dodgers.  1. How Manny more days until Ramirez finds a home? I could never resist taking advantage of a good pun opportunity. The ongoing speculation is that there really are no serious offers on the table besides the Dodgers', who most recently made one for one year at $25 million. MLB.com has reported that Manny is "optimistic" that he will receive a four-year contract offer. That is beyond hilarious. Maybe Manny thinks that simply stating his hopes will cause teams to get into a bidding war. In any event, if Manny does re-sign with the Dodgers, Greg Rybarczyk of Hit Tracker Online thinks Dodger stadium is the perfect place for him to hit. Rybarczyk's Hit Tracker-based forecasting system projects Manny for a 1.071 OPS in 2009, which is actually better than his 2008 season when he posted a 1.031 OPS. You could debate all day whether Manny will lack motivation if he doesn't get the contract he wants, leading to a disappointing performance, but as usual, I prefer to stick to the objective and quantitative side of things and not make totally speculative guesses. The bottom line is that he's going to be 37 this season and before his big 2008, was coming off two straight seasons with fewer than 500 at-bats. Oh, and his BABIP was .373 last year, versus a career mark of .344. He's almost guaranteed to be drafted for more than I'm willing to pay. 2. The next step for young outfielders Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. Given all the worry about Kemp's playing time before the 2008 season with four outfielders for three spots, he ended up receiving 606 at-bats after all and didn't disappoint. He once again posted an inflated BABIP of .363 and has continued a string of high marks everywhere he plays. At some point, it will be time to come to the realization that Kemp has some sort of skill that we have yet to identify or measure. Maybe the introduction of HitF/X will allow us to delve deeper into Kemp's hit rate. He should improve his contact rate given his history, and he could hit more fly balls if his line drive rate regresses, both of which point to a good bet for 20+ homers this season. The steals were obviously a surprise, but Joe Torre has no problem running his guys, so he could swipe 30 again. Ethier had one heck of a second half that basically coincided with Manny's arrival. People love to argue that this was no coincidence and of course ignore the myriad of studies that have concluded protection to be a myth. With or without Manny, Ethier's skills are all trending in the right direction. Increasing walk rate and a rising isolated slugging percentage, to go along with a solid contact rate, means he may not be done just yet. His 26% line drive rate is sure to drop, which could lead to more fly balls. Though, that might not automatically mean more home runs since his HR/FB ratio spiked from 9.4% to 14.1% and that might not be repeated, but a full year of at-bats (he only had 525 in 2008) should ensure another 20 home run season, at the least. Assuming he doesn't sit against lefties, he should provide some profit to drafters. If he actually improves against them (.736 OPS in his career, .693 in 2008), watch out. 3. Which wins out- Rafael Furcal's surging skills or his back troubles? I hate injuries. If everyone just always remained 100% healthy, it would be so much easier to project players. In 143 at-bats in 2008, Furcal was having a career year, by far. His BB% jumped nearly 50% to reach the highest level since his rookie year in 2000, he sustained the improvement he flashed in his K% from 2007, his isolated slugging percentage skyrocketed, and his HR/FB ratio was nearly 40% higher than his previous career high. By the time his season was cut short, he had posted a 1.012 OPS, compared with his previous career high at .814 in 2006! If healthy, he's a 15 HR-30 SB shortstop who should hit .280-.300 and provide very good RBI+R numbers for his position. In other words, he's easily your #4 shortstop. Of course, health is the key. He had surgery on his lower back last July, so we could hope that it has fixed his problems and he's now healthy. Back problems are tricky, though, as they never seem to truly go away and end up hurting the player's production for the rest of his career. For some reason, Furcal has climbed up the draft boards. After I selected him in the 9th round in the first mock draft for the 2009 season that took place on the last day of the 2008 season (yes, we're true nerds), his ADP has risen to 61, which equates to the beginning of the 6th round. I liked him a lot better in the 9th!  4. Chad Billingsley...sleeper NL Cy Young candidate? Want to see the definition of progression? 5.9, 8.6, 9.0. Those are Billingsley's K/9 rates the last three years. 5.8, 3.9, 3.6. Those are his BB/9 rates. 48%, 41%, 49%. Those are his GB% rates. Oh, and he reduced his walk rate in the 2nd half (Jul-Oct) to just 3.0. Unfortunately, Chad did post a 3.14 ERA in 2008, so he's not exactly sneaking up on anyone. That ERA was also a bit over his head, as his xFIP was 3.74. He appears to have the skill set and ability to improve, though, to post a legit low-3.00 ERA in 2009. However, I stress that without some luck again this season, it will be nearly impossible for him to replicate that ERA without further improvement in his skill set, namely in his walk rate. There's also the question of whether he'll suffer any effects from his broken leg he had surgery on this off-season. So to answer my own question, yes, he does have an outside shot at being a legitimate Cy Young contender as he has the ground balls and strikeouts we love to see, but again, he's going to need either some luck once again, or another step forward in his control, to get there. 5. Clayton Kershaw's sophomore effort. Kershaw has an almost identical skill profile to another Dodgers pitcher, none other than Chad Billingsley, discussed above. Clayton combines a near 50% ground ball rate with the ability to strike out nearly a batter an inning. The one weakness is his control, which has typically been a problem, except at Double-A in 2008 when he managed just a 2.8 BB/9. We all know about "Public Enemy Number 1", his curve ball, which he threw 23% of the time with the Dodgers. Other than that, he really only throws a fastball, which averaged 94.0 MPH. He only threw his third pitch, a change-up, 5.3% of the time, making him pretty much a two-pitch pitcher. Of course, the two pitches are well above average. I have to admit, I do love Kershaw. From July on, his BB/9 was below 4.0 in each month, which he's going to need to maintain to reach his seemingly unlimited potential. Expectations do need to be tempered, however, as you must remember he has never thrown a pitch at the Triple-A level. He has also only pitched 220.1 innings for his entire minor league career, which is equivalent to just one season from Johan Santana. Lack of experience aside, he has been going pretty late in mock drafts, so he offers an excellent risk/reward proposition. I know this isn't something you haven't read before, but this kid's going to be good, real good (if he could avoid arm/shoulder injuries). Trackback(0)
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Tags: top five stories los angeles dodgers manny ramirez chad billingsley sleeper rafael furcal matt kemp andre ethier clayton kershaw
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#6 will maury wills be around this spring to discuss the art of base stealing with the players ?