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07 Feb 2009 |
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| We round out the NL Central with a look at the top five stories for the annual cellar dwellers, the Pittsburgh Pirates. 1. Should we take a Snell of Ian in 2009? I view Snell and Aaron Harang very similarly. Both saw their skills erode in 2008 and had very disappointing seasons, while each missed time with injury. The good  news is that we know these two were not completely healthy, so it wasn't just a matter of a loss of talent. The bad news is, of course, that they were injured and we can't be sure if they will be completely healthy in 2009. Snell missed time last year due to a strained elbow, which is always a scary news item to read. Elbow injuries typically result in a loss of control, and sure enough, Snell's walk rate ballooned to 4.9, after sitting at just 2.9 in 2007. His average fastball velocity was right in line with where it was over the last four years. This certainly supports the idea that his elbow was hurting him all year. He also suffered from some bad luck with a ridiculously high .358 BABIP. The Pirates defense isn't good, but they aren't that bad! It will be tough to get a read on whether or not Snell is completely healthy as velocity wasn't the problem, so maybe just monitoring his control in the spring would help. If there are any indications of elbow discomfort, however, jump ship immediately as TJ Surgery could very well be the next blurb on Rotoworld that you read about Snell. Unfortunately I can't really say more than if he's healthy, he'll rebound and make for a good late-round/cheap selection in all leagues, but if not, then he's potentially looking at surgery. 2. Boom or bust time for Andy LaRoche. After sitting high on top prospect lists for years now and tearing up the minors with excellent walk rates, very good contact ability and good power, he's hit a Neifi Perez-like .184/.288/.272 in the majors with the Dodgers and Pirates over 316 at-bats. This line includes an insanely low .177 BABIP in 2008 and little power. With such a strong track record in the minors and really just a small sample of major league at-bats, it would be foolish to write him off so quickly. He has a strong skill set and has almost always had a BABIP over .300, so there's no real reason to think that he'll be the victim of a low hit rate his entire career. If he could avoid doing an impression of his brother and getting off to a slow start, the Pirates should stick with him and he has the talent to surprise. He might even chip in a couple of steals as he's stolen four bases in his major league career, which would pro-rate to seven over 550 at-bats. This is the definition of sleeper in NL-Only leagues. Oh, and if Ramon Vazquez starts stealing LaRoche's at-bats, then it's time to contract this organization. 3. Besides McLouth, who in the world gets the rest of the outfield at-bats? There are seven different players, besides McLouth, who could receive playing time in the outfield this year. Brandon Moss was expected to start in left, but he's recovering from knee surgery. Then the Pirates went out and signed Craig Monroe and Eric Hinske, because, ya know, every team needs veteran mediocrities (or crap in the case of Monroe) to block their young talent when they won't be competitive. Back to Moss, he really isn't anything special anyway as he strikes out a lot and only has mediocre power. In right field, I was under the assumption that it was Steve Pearce's job to lose. Apparently this is not the case as [sarcasm] future superstar [/sarcasm] Nyjer Morgan will be battling it out with Pearce. Morgan in a corner OF spot is laughable, as he doesn't walk, strikes out more than you'd expect for someone with no power, and has relied on high BABIP marks just to post respectable OBPs. Sure, he'll provide some cheap steals if he gets the at-bats, but he looks very much like Michael Bourn to me, and the Pirates shouldn't give him a long leash. On the other hand, I like Steve Pearce, as he's shown good power in the minors with solid contact rates and has also shown a willingness to steal. He looks pretty similar to Andy LaRoche actually, minus the walks.  4. Speaking of Nate McLouth, what does he do for an encore? All you had to do was pro-rate Nate's 2007 into a full season and suddenly his 2008 wasn't such a surprise. The steals pace did fall off, but he has been a fantastic base stealer, so he has nice upside in the category. If he could maintain the drastically improved contact rate, then he has some batting average upside as his BABIP was just .291 last year, versus a .301 expected mark. His HR/FB ratio has steadily improved each year since 2006, so rather than thinking his power is a fluke, it looks like just another point along a trend line, and completely repeatable. He's also become an extreme fly ball hitter, so if that HR/FB uptrend continues, he could push 30 in 2009. Many fantasy owners are worried about his 1st half/2nd half splits, but depending on when you define those two halves, he actually wasn't all that much worse in the 2nd half. He put up a .280/.346/.522 line in the 1st half and .272/.349/.470 line in the 2nd half. The only real difference was a clear drop in power, which gives some fuel for those who think the power was a fluke. I try not to put too much stock into such splits as studies have shown that they have little predictive value. Draft McLouth expecting similar numbers to 2008 with some stolen base and possibly batting average upside. 5. The Andrew McCutchen era soon to be coming to a ballpark near you. This may finally be the year that the long awaited arrival of Andrew McCutchen will take place. He's another one of those tools guys whose minor league stats haven't exactly matched the hype he has received. His highest OPS was just .840 back in 2006 in Double-A, but that came in just 75 at-bats. In a full-season, it was just .802, posted in Single-A in 2006. It does appear that he's making progress. He bumped his walk rate up to a very solid 11.7% in Triple-A in 2008, while also upping his contact rate to a respectable 83%. His power still has not materialized, but that skill is sometimes the last one to appear. Though he has speed and attempted 53 steals last season, he was caught a whopping 19 times to give him a lowly 64% success rate. He's going to need to improve on his base stealing skills to reach his 15/30 potential, and at this point, he looks like he'll be a better fantasy player than real life player, which could hurt his playing time. Trackback(0)
Comments (4)
  written by ichirosan, February 09, 2009
What do you expect of Freddy Sánchez? He can't be as bad as he was early last year, and he's been slipping so far in every mock I've done that he's gone undrafted most of the time... even in a 20-man mock I got him with my 23rd pick!!!
written by big o, February 07, 2009
even if you are the only one to read/comment on this article , why risk ruining a good thing ?
let everyone else stay away , sooner or later they will understand . try keeping your mouth shut , for a change .
written by big o, February 07, 2009
this is the 1st time that i have had to "read between the lines" for one of your articles , michael .
re : snell's problematic elbow correct me , if i'm wrong but , his average fastball velocity remaining static suggests that his elbow discomfort is more pronounced when he throws breaking stuff or off-speed pitchers (curves , sliders, etc). thus , monitoring if he only throws fastballs this spring might also raise a red flag .
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Tags: top five stories pittsburgh pirates ian snell aaron harang andy laroche adam laroche ramon vazquez brandon moss craig monroe eric hinske steve pearce nyjer morgan nate mclouth andrew mccutchen sleepers prospects
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He could hit .300 again, but won't help much anywhere else. I wouldn't bother with him in a mixed league (the shallow kind, not the 20-team kind!), but he'll be undervalued in NL-Only leagues.