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27 Feb 2009 |
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| I have titled today’s article after the catch phrase from a popular board game because A) it is not at all clever, and B) the way Bradley has been treated in mock drafts this year is not a game. Despite leading the American League in OPS last year, Bradley has seen his stock plummet to the bottom of the ocean like the Destroyer after three quick strikes (OK that one was pretty clever, but it is the last one I swear). As a result his ADP thus far is 143. The three most common arguments are that he is injury plagued and will not give you more than 450 AB’s, he is a head-case who will get suspended and cost you AB’s, and he has left the launching pad in Texas so his numbers will drop. I am not buddies with his psychiatrist or family doctor so I cannot tell you for sure that he is in the clear with regards to these first two categories, but I can suggest some strategies to cope with the associated problems. As for the transition to Wrigley, I think Milton will be just fine. The Numbers Milton Bradley can flat out mash the baseball. Since his breakout season in 2003, Bradley has put up seasonal OPS+ figures of 147,108, 118, 114, 153, and 163. During the same time period, Andruw Jones competed in 3 All-Star games, won a Silver Slugger, and was a fantasy darling... all while compiling OPS+ numbers of 117, 112, 136, 126, 88, and 34. Even if we pretend last year did not happen for Jones, Bradley blows him out of the water in per plate appearance production. So what if last year’s 22 HR and 77 RBI were career highs? The fact is this guy is a natural hitter and should be given every opportunity to succeed in Chicago. The Contingency Plan In no way am I here to defend Bradley’s injury history or what goes on inside his head and I accept that he will miss his fair share of games. However, as an astute manager you can use this to your advantage. Because his playing time is limited he is undervalued. This allows you to grab a guy with the per plate appearance production of a 4th round pick in the 12th. If you carry a 4th OF on your roster to supplement the time Bradley misses you can still create a roster slot that gives you 5th round production for the cost of say an 11th rounder and a 12th rounder. Don’t believe me? Take a look at the following chart, where I combine the stats of Bradley and Diamondbacks OF Conor Jackson to equal the production of 5th round pick Nate McLouth.
It will take another extraordinary season by McLouth (especially without Jason Bay) to equal the numbers of my tandem. All this strategy takes is a little dedication to make sure you know when Bradley is hurt to get him out of the line-up and a willingness to sacrifice that final roster spot, which is often not used to its full potential anyways. The Mythical Land of Home Runs For some reason, whenever a player joins the Rangers everyone assumes that he will magically turn into a home run mashing monster. While the Ballpark in Arlington is certainly one of the more hitter-friendly fields in the game, the awful pitching staffs assembled by the Rangers front office have contributed a lot to this reputation. You may even be surprised that when examining park factors over the past three seasons, Wrigley Field in Chicago has actually been friendlier to sluggers than the Ballpark in Arlington. The following chart demonstrates the Runs, HR, and OPS park factors for the fields of the Cubs, Rangers and Padres, as well as the league rankings in brackets.
I included San Diego to prove that Bradley can also hit well in a pitcher’s park, as he put up a stellar line of .313/.414/.590 with the Padres in 2007 before having his ACL torn by Bud Black. Game Over* I put out an open challenge for anyone to contend the logic of my argument. I believe it is relatively sound as Bradley has proven that he can hit in any ballpark, and is not a product of the exaggeration of Arlington. I was also conservative in my estimates for the predicted statistics I applied to Bradley and Jackson. I even put them up against fair competition. Originally, I had Corey Hart as the 5th rounder I was comparing my duo to. The numbers were very lopsided. There is no way Hart should even be mentioned in the same breath as McLouth. Props to John Dorhauer for picking this up in an article on our old site a couple of weeks ago. My only regret is that I probably should have used a lesser player than Jackson as Bradley’s platoon partner because he is also undervalued but that is a story for another day. *You cannot blame me if Bradley gets suspended for assaulting a fan with a Gatorade cooler; that is not part of the deal. If Milton Bradley can play 130 games, what are your expectations? Will he prove to be better than his ADP suggests? Trackback(0)
Comments (4)
  written by big o, February 28, 2009
without getting into a discussion about jackson vs rowand , i might be having some of the same concerns that mike is having .
jackson had 12 HRs in 540 AB's last year . you want me to substitute 200 of his AB's into the line-up based on the daily whims/injury of bradley (and the capriciousness of lou pinella) AND hope that he'll hit 8 of his 12 HR's during those days ? who would try that ?
written by MikePodhorzer, February 27, 2009
One last thing to add...Conor Jackson is worthy of a starting roster spot (and being drafted as so), so it would not really be smart to waste him on your bench in a sort of platoon role since you'd have to use a mid-teens round pick on him. That being the case, you'd want to instead combine Bradley with a true replacement level player, someone like Aaron Rowand.
written by MikePodhorzer, February 27, 2009
This is essentially what I discussed in an article on the premium site. Derek Carty also wrote a series of articles on THT talking about drafting injury prone players. It's absolutely a sound strategy when you think of drafting a compilation of stats for a roster slot, rather than a specific player.
I would quibble, however, with your C-Jax HR projection, as that pro-rates to 24 over 600 ABs and I don't think anyone expects that. You also didn't mention Bradley's astronomical BABIP that inflated his batting average. But those are just minor issues. This stategy also works better in daily transaction leagues so you don't get stuck with a 0 for the week when Bradley inevitably gets hurt on a Tuesday right after your lineup is set for the week.
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You are right that I may have overestimated Jackson's home run totals, but I really like him this year and think he will push that home run total a little closer to 20, although you are right in saying 24 is a little bit of a stretch.